Excess mortality and expected mortality
The expected number of deaths (without the coronavirus pandemic) is estimated based on recorded mortality between 2015 and 2019. First, weekly mortality is determined for each year. Then, the average mortality for that week, along with a six-week period on each side, is determined.
Average weekly mortality only provides an approximation of expected weekly mortality, however, because it does not take account of the ageing of the population. For this reason, weekly mortality is adjusted according to expected mortality for that year. Expected mortality was 153,402 for 2020, 154,887 for 2021, 155,493 for 2022 and 156,666 for 2023. The figure for 2020 was derived from the Core Forecast 2019-2060; the figure for 2021 was derived from the Population Forecast 2020-2070 (excluding the increase in excess mortality caused by the Covid-19 pandemic), the figure for 2022 was derived from the Core Forecast 2021-2070 (excluding the increase in excess mortality caused by the Covid-19 pandemic) and the figure for 2023 was derived from the Core Forecast 2022-2070 (excluding the increase in excess mortality caused by the Covid-19 pandemic). The margins for expected mortality were estimated on the basis of the recorded weekly distribution for mortality in the same five-year period. This method was applied to expected mortality retrospectively, starting with week 1 of 2020.
The weekly COVID-19 mortality monitor was discontinued at the end of 2023 because it was no longer required.