Economic outlook deteriorates further

The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.

Consumer and producer confidence less negative

In January 2024, Dutch consumers were less negative than in the previous month. However, confidence was still far below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producers were also less negative than in December, with confidence remaining below the 20-year average as well.

Household consumption up, exports and investments down

Households spent 0.3 percent more on goods and services in November 2023 year on year (adjusted for price changes and shopping-day pattern). Consumption of services was higher, while consumption of goods remained virtually the same.

In November 2023, the total volume of goods exports (adjusted for number of working days) was down by 4.5 percent year on year. Export volumes of food, beverages and tobacco as well as chemical products were lower in particular.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets declined by 3.6 percent year on year, mainly due to lower investments in buildings and infrastructure.

Manufacturing output 10 percent down in November

In November 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 10.0 percent lower than in November 2022. Output also contracted year on year in the preceding months of 2023. Manufacturing output fell by 0.8 percent from October to November.

More bankruptcies in December

Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 91 more bankruptcies in December 2023 than one month previously; an increase of 30 percent. There has been an upward trend in the number of bankruptcies for over a year.

House prices nearly 2 percent up in December

In December 2023, prices of owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 1.6 percent higher than one year previously. The price increase follows 10 months of price decrease. Prices rose by 0.2 percent in December relative to November 2023.

Fewer vacancies, fewer unemployed, more hours worked

In Q3 2023, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, rose by 0.4 percent on the previous quarter. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q3 2023 amounted to just over 3.6 billion.

For the fifth consecutive quarter, there were fewer unfilled vacancies than in the previous quarter. At the end of Q3, there were 416 thousand unfilled vacancies, 12 thousand fewer than at the end of Q2.

In December, 3.6 percent of the labour force were unemployed, equivalent to the 2023 average. In Q4, unemployment declined slightly by 3 thousand per month on average, ending at 361 thousand in December.

In Q3 2023, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 0.5 percent relative to the previous quarter. 

Economic contraction 0.3 percent in Q3 2023

According to the second quarterly estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the volume of gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3 percent in Q3 2023 relative to the previous quarter. This is the third consecutive quarter with contraction. The contraction in Q3 can mainly be attributed to declining investments in fixed assets, a decline in inventory changes and a decrease in household consumption.