Economic outlook deteriorated in December

The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.

Consumer confidence less negative, producers more negative

In December 2023, Dutch consumers were less negative than in the previous month. Nevertheless, confidence was still far below the long-term average over the past two decades. On the other hand, producers were more negative than in November, with confidence remaining below the 20-year average as well.

Household consumption and exports down, investments up

In October, the total volume of goods exports (adjusted for number of working days) was down by 7.5 percent year on year. Export volumes of food, beverages and tobacco, petroleum products, and natural gas in particular were lower.

Households spent 0.2 percent less in October 2023 year on year (adjusted for shopping-day patern and price changes). They bought fewer goods, but more services.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was up by 2.5 percent year on year. This is mainly due to higher investments in buildings, infrastructure and passenger cars.

Manufacturing output over 11 percent down in October

In October 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 11.1 percent lower than in October 2022. Output also contracted year on year in the preceding months of 2023. After seasonal adjustments, manufacturing output fell by 0.5 percent between September and October.

Slightly more bankruptcies in November

Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 7 more bankruptcies in November 2023 than one month previously; an increase of 2 percent. There has been an upward trend in the number of bankruptcies for over a year.

House prices almost 1 percent lower in November

In November 2023, prices of owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 0.9 percent lower than in November 2022. The price decrease was again smaller than in the previous month. Relative to October 2023, prices rose by 0.5 percent in November.

Fewer vacancies, fewer unemployed, more hours worked

In Q3 2023, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, rose by 0.4 percent on the previous quarter. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q3 2023 amounted to just over 3.6 billion.

For the fifth consecutive quarter, there were fewer unfilled vacancies than in the previous quarter. At the end of Q3, there were 416 thousand unfilled vacancies, 12 thousand fewer than at the end of Q2.

In November, unemployment fell slightly to 3.5 percent of the labour force; 357 thousand people were unemployed. Unemployment declined by 2 thousand a month on average during the preceding three months.

In Q3 2023, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 0.5 percent relative to the previous quarter.

Economic contraction 0.3 percent in Q3 2023

According to the second quarterly estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), the volume of gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3 percent in Q3 2023 relative to the previous quarter. This is the third consecutive quarter with contraction. The contraction in Q3 can mainly be attributed to declining investments in fixed assets, a decline in inventory changes and a decrease in household consumption.