Economic contraction of 0.3 percent in Q1 2023

More recent figures are available on this topic. View the latest figures here.
© Hollandse Hoogte / Ramon van Flymen
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.3 percent in Q1 2023 relative to Q4 2022. The contraction in the first quarter of 2023 is mainly due to increased withdrawals from gas storage facilities. The second GDP estimate is published 85 days after the end of each quarter.

The growth rate for Q1 2023 has been adjusted upwards. In the first estimate, which was published on 16 May, contraction relative to Q4 2022 amounted to 0.7 percent. In particular, the trade balance and investments contributed to the upward revision of GDP growth. For example, exports of goods fell less sharply and exports of services rose more substantially. Imports of goods and services have also been revised upwards, but to a lesser extent than exports.

On the one hand, the adjustment is the result of new, more complete data for the first quarter of 2023 and, on the other, of adjustments to the annual figures for 2021 and 2022 and the reconciliation of the quarterly estimates with these new annual figures. This is done every year in June.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2016Quarter 1101.2
2016Quarter 2101.4
2016Quarter 3102.6
2016Quarter 4103.4
2017Quarter 1104
2017Quarter 2104.9
2017Quarter 3105.6
2017Quarter 4106.4
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.6
2018Quarter 3107.8
2018Quarter 4108.3
2019Quarter 1109.2
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.7
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.9
2020Quarter 299.8
2020Quarter 3106.2
2020Quarter 4106.9
2021Quarter 1108.2
2021Quarter 2111.4
2021Quarter 3113.6
2021Quarter 4114.6
2022Quarter 1115.2
2022Quarter 2117.1
2022Quarter 3117
2022Quarter 4118.1
2023Quarter 1117.7

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data on sectors including construction, business services, accommodation and food services, the public sector, care and financial institutions. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate relative to the first estimate averaged 0.1 percentage points over the five-year period 2018-2022, with the two extremes ranging between -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points, both occurring in 2021.

Adjustments of annual and quarterly figures

Simultaneously with the publication of the second estimate over Q1 2023, revised annual figures over 2021 and 2022 are published. On the basis of the most recent data, the growth rate for 2021 has been adjusted from 4.9 to 6.2 percent. The economic growth rate for 2022 has been adjusted from 4.5 to 4.3 percent.

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. Together with the adjustments of the quarterly estimates to the new annual figures for 2021 and 2022, this has led to adjustments to GDP growth in the quarters from 2017 to 2022.

Today, CBS not only publishes adjusted annual figures for GDP, but also for gross national income (GNI). The adjustments to GNI are considerably larger than in recent years. The GNI for 2022 has been revised upwards by 46.4 billion euros and for 2021 by 48.2 billion euros. This is not only attributable to an upward adjustment of nominal GDP, but mainly to an upward revision of the primary income balance between the Netherlands and abroad, partly due to new information on the profits of listed multinationals.

Growth relative to Q1 2022

Year-on-year, GDP increased by 1.9 percent in Q1. In the first estimate, the growth rate also amounted to 1.9 percent. Growth in Q1 2023 was mainly due to more investments and higher household and public consumption.

GDP (volume)
YearQuarterIndex (year-on-year % change)
2016Quarter 12.1
2016Quarter 22.3
2016Quarter 32.1
2016Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.6
2018Quarter 22.7
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.9
2019Quarter 11.8
2019Quarter 21.9
2019Quarter 32.1
2019Quarter 42
2020Quarter 1-0.3
2020Quarter 2-8.8
2020Quarter 3-3.3
2020Quarter 4-2.9
2021Quarter 1-1.1
2021Quarter 211.8
2021Quarter 36.9
2021Quarter 47.4
2022Quarter 16.4
2022Quarter 25.2
2022Quarter 33
2022Quarter 42.9
2023Quarter 11.9

49 thousand more jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 49 thousand in Q1 2023 compared to Q4 2022. The first estimate suggested an increase of 63 thousand jobs.

The second estimate for Q1 2023 further suggested a year-on-year increase of 270 thousand employee and self-employed jobs, versus 278 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2016Quarter 113
2016Quarter 253
2016Quarter 344
2016Quarter 456
2017Quarter 164
2017Quarter 266
2017Quarter 377
2017Quarter 476
2018Quarter 178
2018Quarter 263
2018Quarter 366
2018Quarter 457
2019Quarter 166
2019Quarter 235
2019Quarter 335
2019Quarter 450
2020Quarter 111
2020Quarter 2-307
2020Quarter 3173
2020Quarter 41
2021Quarter 111
2021Quarter 2137
2021Quarter 3170
2021Quarter 474
2022Quarter 1134
2022Quarter 294
2022Quarter 371
2022Quarter 476
2023Quarter 149