Economic growth of 0.6 percent in Q4 2022

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© Hollandse Hoogte / Ramon van Flymen
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6 percent in Q4 2022 relative to Q3 2022. In the first estimate, which was published on 14 February, growth also amounted to 0.6 percent. The second GDP estimate is always published around 85 days after the end of each quarter.

Public consumption has been adjusted upwards. This is partly due to higher expenditure by municipalities. Household consumption has also been adjusted upwards. Households spent more on services such as accommodation and food services, recreation and culture. However, the trade balance for services has been adjusted downwards. Growth in Q4 was broad-based, with public consumption and household consumption making the largest contributions.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2015Quarter 199.6
2015Quarter 299.9
2015Quarter 3100.2
2015Quarter 4100.3
2016Quarter 1101.2
2016Quarter 2101.4
2016Quarter 3102.6
2016Quarter 4103.4
2017Quarter 1104
2017Quarter 2104.9
2017Quarter 3105.6
2017Quarter 4106.4
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.6
2018Quarter 3107.8
2018Quarter 4108.3
2019Quarter 1109
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.9
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.8
2020Quarter 2100.1
2020Quarter 3106.5
2020Quarter 4106.4
2021Quarter 1106.6
2021Quarter 2110.4
2021Quarter 3112.4
2021Quarter 4112.9
2022Quarter 1113.1
2022Quarter 2116.2
2022Quarter 3116.2
2022Quarter 4116.9

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate relative to the first estimate averaged nearly 0.09 percentage points over the five-year period 2017-2021 , with the two extremes ranging between -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points, both occurring in 2021.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. While conducting the second estimate for Q4, CBS also adjusts the first three quarters on the basis of the most recent data. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate has been revised for Q1, Q2 and Q3: Q1 from 0.4 to 0.1 percent, Q2 from 2.5 to 2.7 percent and Q3 from -0.2 to 0.0 percent.

Growth relative to Q4 2021

Year on year, GDP increased by 3.2 percent in Q4. In the first estimate, the increase amounted to 3.0 percent. Household and public consumption have been adjusted upwards, while the trade balance has been adjusted downwards.

The growth rates for Q1, Q2 and Q3 have been adjusted as well: from 6.7 to 6.3 percent, from 5.1 to 5.2 percent and from 3.1 to 3.4 percent, respectively.

GDP (volume)
YearQuarterIndex (year-on-year % change)
2015Quarter 11.9
2015Quarter 22.1
2015Quarter 32.5
2015Quarter 41.4
2016Quarter 12.1
2016Quarter 22.3
2016Quarter 32.1
2016Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.6
2018Quarter 22.7
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.9
2019Quarter 11.8
2019Quarter 21.9
2019Quarter 32.1
2019Quarter 42
2020Quarter 1-0.1
2020Quarter 2-8.7
2020Quarter 3-3.3
2020Quarter 4-3.3
2021Quarter 1-2.2
2021Quarter 210.2
2021Quarter 35.4
2021Quarter 46.2
2022Quarter 16.3
2022Quarter 25.2
2022Quarter 33.4
2022Quarter 43.2

Dutch economy grew by 4.5 percent in 2022

Annual GDP growth for 2022 was 4.5 percent. In the first estimate, the growth rate also amounted to 4.5 percent. Growth over 2022 was mainly due to higher household consumption. The trade balance, investments and public consumption also contributed positively.

94 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 94 thousand in Q4 2022 compared to Q3 2022. The first estimate suggested an increase of 85 thousand jobs.

The second estimate for Q4 2022 further suggested a year-on-year increase of 394 thousand employee and self-employed jobs, versus 380 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available. Figures for the first three quarters of 2022 have also been adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. Overall, the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 445 thousand on average in 2022.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2015Quarter 136
2015Quarter 232
2015Quarter 337
2015Quarter 442
2016Quarter 113
2016Quarter 252
2016Quarter 345
2016Quarter 457
2017Quarter 164
2017Quarter 264
2017Quarter 376
2017Quarter 475
2018Quarter 179
2018Quarter 264
2018Quarter 368
2018Quarter 456
2019Quarter 164
2019Quarter 233
2019Quarter 341
2019Quarter 467
2020Quarter 131
2020Quarter 2-304
2020Quarter 3175
2020Quarter 43
2021Quarter 1-2
2021Quarter 2141
2021Quarter 3183
2021Quarter 483
2022Quarter 1122
2022Quarter 293
2022Quarter 377
2022Quarter 494