Economic contraction 0.2 percent in Q3 2022

© Hollandse Hoogte / Berlinda van Dam
According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.2 percent in Q3 2022 relative to Q2 2022. In the first estimate, which was published on 15 November, contraction also amounted to 0.2 percent. The second GDP estimate is published 85 days after the end of each quarter.

The increase in household consumption was adjusted from 0.1 to 0.5 percent. In addition, investments were revised slightly upward, from -1.7 to -1.6 percent. However, the decrease in public consumption was adjusted from -0.1 to -0.4 percent. On balance, the growth figure is equal to that of the first estimate. The overall picture has also not changed. Contraction was mainly due to less investment, mainly in dwellings and infrastructure.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2015Quarter 199.6
2015Quarter 299.9
2015Quarter 3100.2
2015Quarter 4100.3
2016Quarter 1101.2
2016Quarter 2101.4
2016Quarter 3102.6
2016Quarter 4103.4
2017Quarter 1104.0
2017Quarter 2104.9
2017Quarter 3105.6
2017Quarter 4106.4
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.6
2018Quarter 3107.8
2018Quarter 4108.3
2019Quarter 1109.0
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.9
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.7
2020Quarter 2100.1
2020Quarter 3106.5
2020Quarter 4106.5
2021Quarter 1106.5
2021Quarter 2110.4
2021Quarter 3112.4
2021Quarter 4113.1
2022Quarter 1113.4
2022Quarter 2116.2
2022Quarter 3115.9

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.09 percentage points over the past five years (2017-2021), with the two extremes ranging between -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points, both occurring in 2021.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. This has not led to an adjustment of GDP growth in previous quarters.

Growth relative to Q3 2021

Year on year, GDP increased by 3.1 percent in Q3. In the first estimate, the increase also amounted to 3.1 percent. The overall picture has not changed. Growth was mainly due to a higher trade balance, more household consumption and larger investments.

GDP (volume)
YearQuarterIndex (year-on-year % change)
2015Quarter 11.9
2015Quarter 22.1
2015Quarter 32.5
2015Quarter 41.4
2016Quarter 12.1
2016Quarter 22.3
2016Quarter 32.1
2016Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23.0
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.6
2018Quarter 22.7
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.9
2019Quarter 11.8
2019Quarter 21.9
2019Quarter 32.1
2019Quarter 42.0
2020Quarter 1-0.1
2020Quarter 2-8.7
2020Quarter 3-3.3
2020Quarter 4-3.3
2021Quarter 1-2.2
2021Quarter 210.2
2021Quarter 35.4
2021Quarter 46.2
2022Quarter 16.7
2022Quarter 25.1
2022Quarter 33.1

53 thousand more jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 53 thousand in Q3 2022 compared to Q2 2022. The first estimate suggested an increase of 59 thousand jobs.

The second estimate for Q3 2022 further suggested a year-on-year increase of 375 thousand employee and self-employed jobs, versus 386 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2015Quarter 136
2015Quarter 232
2015Quarter 337
2015Quarter 442
2016Quarter 113
2016Quarter 252
2016Quarter 345
2016Quarter 457
2017Quarter 164
2017Quarter 264
2017Quarter 376
2017Quarter 475
2018Quarter 179
2018Quarter 264
2018Quarter 368
2018Quarter 456
2019Quarter 165
2019Quarter 232
2019Quarter 341
2019Quarter 467
2020Quarter 133
2020Quarter 2-307
2020Quarter 3174
2020Quarter 42
2021Quarter 12
2021Quarter 2138
2021Quarter 3185
2021Quarter 486
2022Quarter 1127
2022Quarter 288
2022Quarter 353