The growth rate has been adjusted upwards. In the first estimate, which was published on 17 May, growth relative to Q4 2021 amounted to 0.0 percent. In particular, the larger increase in household consumption and the smaller decrease in government consumption contributed to the upward revision of GDP growth.
On the one hand, the adjustment is the result of new, more complete data for the first quarter of 2022 and, on the other, of adjustments to the annual figures for 2020 and 2021 and the reconciliation of the quarterly estimates with these new annual figures. This is done every year in June. Based on additional and updated information, a new quarterly distribution for care has also been used for the quarters of 2020 and 2021.
The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.
In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.09 percentage points over the past five years (2017-2021), with the two extremes ranging between -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points , both occurring in 2021.
Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment
With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate in Q1, Q3 and Q4 2021 has been adjusted from -0.5 to 0.1 percent, from 2.0 to 1.5 percent and from 1.0 to 0.7 percent respectively. The growth rates of the first three quarters of 2020 have also been adjusted.
Simultaneously with the publication of the second estimate over Q1 2022, revised annual figures over 2020 (final) and 2021 (provisional) are published. On the basis of the most recent data, the growth rate for 2021 has been adjusted from 5.0 to 4.9 percent. The economic growth rate for 2020 has been adjusted from -3.8 to -3.9 percent.
Growth relative to Q1 2021
Year-on-year, GDP increased by 6.7 percent in Q1. In the first estimate, the increase amounted to 7.0 percent. Growth is mainly attributable to an increase in household consumption, trade balance and public consumption.
In particular, the larger increase in imports and the smaller increase in exports contributed to the downward revision of GDP growth. As a result, the contribution to the growth of the trade balance was smaller than in the first calculation. However, the contribution of household consumption was larger.
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109 thousand more jobs
The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 109 thousand in Q1 2022 compared to Q4 2021. The first estimate suggested an increase of 127 thousand jobs.
Relative to Q1 2021, the second estimate for Q1 2022 further suggested an increase of 537 thousand employee and self-employed jobs compared to the same quarter in 2021, versus 518 thousand according to the first estimate.
Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available.
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