Economic growth of 0.4 percent in Q1 2022

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According to the second estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 0.4 percent in Q1 2022 relative to Q4 2021. Growth is mainly attributable to increased household consumption. The second GDP estimate is published 85 days after the end of each quarter.

The growth rate has been adjusted upwards. In the first estimate, which was published on 17 May, growth relative to Q4 2021 amounted to 0.0 percent. In particular, the larger increase in household consumption and the smaller decrease in government consumption contributed to the upward revision of GDP growth.

On the one hand, the adjustment is the result of new, more complete data for the first quarter of 2022 and, on the other, of adjustments to the annual figures for 2020 and 2021 and the reconciliation of the quarterly estimates with these new annual figures. This is done every year in June. Based on additional and updated information, a new quarterly distribution for care has also been used for the quarters of 2020 and 2021.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2015Quarter 199.6
2015Quarter 299.9
2015Quarter 3100.2
2015Quarter 4100.3
2016Quarter 1101.2
2016Quarter 2101.4
2016Quarter 3102.6
2016Quarter 4103.4
2017Quarter 1104
2017Quarter 2104.9
2017Quarter 3105.6
2017Quarter 4106.4
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.6
2018Quarter 3107.8
2018Quarter 4108.3
2019Quarter 1109
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.9
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.7
2020Quarter 2100.2
2020Quarter 3106.4
2020Quarter 4106.4
2021Quarter 1106.5
2021Quarter 2110.6
2021Quarter 3112.2
2021Quarter 4113
2022Quarter 1113.5

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted 85 days after the end of the quarter. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data about the sectors construction business services, hotels and restaurants, government care and the financial sector. These data are subsequently incorporated into new calculations.

In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate relative to the first estimate has averaged nearly 0.09 percentage points over the past five years (2017-2021), with the two extremes ranging between -0.3 and 0.7 percentage points , both occurring in 2021.

Quarter-on-quarter growth adjustment

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate in Q1, Q3 and Q4 2021 has been adjusted from -0.5 to 0.1 percent, from 2.0 to 1.5 percent and from 1.0 to 0.7 percent respectively. The growth rates of the first three quarters of 2020 have also been adjusted.

Annual figures

Simultaneously with the publication of the second estimate over Q1 2022, revised annual figures over 2020 (final) and 2021 (provisional) are published. On the basis of the most recent data, the growth rate for 2021 has been adjusted from 5.0 to 4.9 percent. The economic growth rate for 2020 has been adjusted from -3.8 to -3.9 percent.

Growth relative to Q1 2021

Year-on-year, GDP increased by 6.7 percent in Q1. In the first estimate, the increase amounted to 7.0 percent. Growth is mainly attributable to an increase in household consumption, trade balance and public consumption.

In particular, the larger increase in imports and the smaller increase in exports contributed to the downward revision of GDP growth. As a result, the contribution to the growth of the trade balance was smaller than in the first calculation. However, the contribution of household consumption was larger.

GDP (volume)
YearQuarterIndex (year-on-year % change)
2015Quarter 11.9
2015Quarter 22.1
2015Quarter 32.5
2015Quarter 41.4
2016Quarter 12.1
2016Quarter 22.3
2016Quarter 32.1
2016Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.6
2018Quarter 22.7
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.9
2019Quarter 11.8
2019Quarter 21.9
2019Quarter 32.1
2019Quarter 42
2020Quarter 1-0.1
2020Quarter 2-8.7
2020Quarter 3-3.3
2020Quarter 4-3.3
2021Quarter 1-2.2
2021Quarter 210.2
2021Quarter 35.4
2021Quarter 46.2
2022Quarter 16.7

109 thousand more jobs

The second estimate shows that the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 109 thousand in Q1 2022 compared to Q4 2021. The first estimate suggested an increase of 127 thousand jobs.

Relative to Q1 2021, the second estimate for Q1 2022 further suggested an increase of 537 thousand employee and self-employed jobs compared to the same quarter in 2021, versus 518 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2015Quarter 135
2015Quarter 233
2015Quarter 337
2015Quarter 442
2016Quarter 112
2016Quarter 254
2016Quarter 346
2016Quarter 456
2017Quarter 161
2017Quarter 266
2017Quarter 376
2017Quarter 473
2018Quarter 177
2018Quarter 268
2018Quarter 368
2018Quarter 455
2019Quarter 159
2019Quarter 240
2019Quarter 342
2019Quarter 465
2020Quarter 127
2020Quarter 2-291
2020Quarter 3170
2020Quarter 4-1
2021Quarter 1-8
2021Quarter 2159
2021Quarter 3178
2021Quarter 481
2022Quarter 1109