Economic growth of 1.0 percent in Q4 2021

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© Hollandse Hoogte / Peter Hilz
According to the second quarterly estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), in Q4 2021 Dutch gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.0 percent relative to Q3 2021. Growth amounted to 0.9 percent according to the first estimate, published on 15 February. The second GDP estimate is always published around 85 days after the end of each quarter.

The growth rate has been adjusted upwards, mainly due to upwardly revised figures on public consumption. Growth in Q4 was largely due to increases in public consumption, investments and the trade balance.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2014Quarter 197.3
2014Quarter 297.9
2014Quarter 398.1
2014Quarter 499
2015Quarter 199.6
2015Quarter 299.9
2015Quarter 3100.2
2015Quarter 4100.3
2016Quarter 1101.2
2016Quarter 2101.4
2016Quarter 3102.6
2016Quarter 4103.4
2017Quarter 1103.9
2017Quarter 2104.9
2017Quarter 3105.6
2017Quarter 4106.5
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.5
2018Quarter 3107.9
2018Quarter 4108.4
2019Quarter 1109
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.9
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.6
2020Quarter 299.5
2020Quarter 3107
2020Quarter 4107
2021Quarter 1106.4
2021Quarter 2110.4
2021Quarter 3112.7
2021Quarter 4113.8

Second estimate

The second estimate is conducted around 85 days after the quarter has ended. The first estimate, which is calculated 45 days after the end of the quarter, is based on the most recent data available at that moment. After the first estimate, more new information about the state of the Dutch economy keeps pouring in, e.g. data on sectors including construction, business services, accommodation and food services, the public sector, care and financial institutions. These data are then incorporated into new calculations.

Over the five-year period 2016-2020, the absolute adjustment of the second estimate relative to the first estimate was on average 0.04 percentage point, with the two extremes at - 0.2 and + 0.1 percentage point.

Growth rates in Q1 and Q3 2021 also adjusted

With each new estimate, CBS also recalculates the seasonally adjusted series of previously published quarters. While conducting the second estimate for Q4, CBS also adjusts the first three quarters on the basis of the most recent data. As a result, the quarter-on-quarter GDP growth rate has been revised for Q1 and Q3: Q1 from -0.8 to -0.5 percent and Q3 from 2.1 to 2.0 percent.

Growth relative to Q4 2020 adjusted to 6.5 percent

Year-on-year, the GDP growth rate in Q4 was 6.5 percent. This was 6.2 percent in the first estimate. The growth rates for Q1, Q2 and Q3 have been adjusted as well: from -2.4 to -2.2 percent, from 10.4 to 10.7 percent and from 5.2 to 5.4 percent, respectively. The adjustments are mainly due to upward revisions for the care sector and the balance of taxes and subsidies on products.

GDP (volume)
YearQuarterIndex (year-on-year % change)
2014Quarter 11.3
2014Quarter 21.4
2014Quarter 31.1
2014Quarter 41.8
2015Quarter 11.9
2015Quarter 22.1
2015Quarter 32.5
2015Quarter 41.4
2016Quarter 12.1
2016Quarter 22.3
2016Quarter 32.1
2016Quarter 42.2
2017Quarter 13.2
2017Quarter 23
2017Quarter 32.8
2017Quarter 42.6
2018Quarter 12.6
2018Quarter 22.7
2018Quarter 32.2
2018Quarter 41.9
2019Quarter 11.9
2019Quarter 22
2019Quarter 32.1
2019Quarter 41.9
2020Quarter 1-0.2
2020Quarter 2-9.2
2020Quarter 3-2.6
2020Quarter 4-2.9
2021Quarter 1-2.2
2021Quarter 210.7
2021Quarter 35.4
2021Quarter 46.5

Dutch economy grew by 5.0 percent in 2021

Annual GDP growth for 2021 was also adjusted to 5.0 percent, versus 4.8 percent according to the first estimate on 15 February. Annual growth over 2021 was mainly due to an increased trade balance along with higher household and public consumption. Investments increased as well.

59 thousand new jobs

The second estimate shows that, in Q4 2021, the number of employee and self-employed jobs rose by 59 thousand relative to Q3 2021. The first estimate suggested 44 thousand additional jobs.
The second estimate further suggests a year-on-year increase of 377 thousand employee and self-employed jobs in Q4, versus 353 thousand according to the first estimate.

Job figures are adjusted when additional information becomes available. Figures for the first three quarters of 2021 have also been adjusted on the basis of the most recent data. Overall, the number of employee and self-employed jobs increased by 203 thousand on average in 2021.

Total jobs (seasonally adjusted)
   change (quarter-on-quarter change (1,000))
2014Quarter 1-12
2014Quarter 218
2014Quarter 323
2014Quarter 429
2015Quarter 136
2015Quarter 233
2015Quarter 337
2015Quarter 442
2016Quarter 112
2016Quarter 254
2016Quarter 346
2016Quarter 456
2017Quarter 162
2017Quarter 266
2017Quarter 375
2017Quarter 473
2018Quarter 180
2018Quarter 271
2018Quarter 366
2018Quarter 446
2019Quarter 157
2019Quarter 240
2019Quarter 334
2019Quarter 454
2020Quarter 148
2020Quarter 2-289
2020Quarter 3164
2020Quarter 4-27
2021Quarter 14
2021Quarter 2147
2021Quarter 3170
2021Quarter 459