Producer confidence at record level

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In June 2021, the mood among Dutch manufacturers has improved again. Producer confidence stands at 11.5 this month, up from 8.8 in May, as reported today by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). This is the highest level since the survey started in 1985.

The long-term average over the past two decades is 0.3. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (11.5) in June 2021 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020. In June, producer confidence is significantly higher than the long-term average and also higher than before the coronavirus crisis.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted)
yearmonthbalance (average of the component questions)
2017July6.6
2017August5.4
2017September8.5
2017October8.2
2017November9.1
2017December8.9
2018January10.3
2018February10.9
2018March9.5
2018April8.2
2018May9.8
2018June7.7
2018July6.3
2018August5.9
2018September5.7
2018October5.9
2018November7.2
2018December7.5
2019January5.8
2019February6.3
2019March6.1
2019April6.7
2019May4.7
2019Juni3.3
2019Juli 3.9
2019August3.9
2019September3.3
2019October3.6
2019November2.8
2019December2.9
2020January2.5
2020February3.7
2020March0.2
2020April-28.7
2020May-25.1
2020June-15.1
2020July-8.7
2020August-5.4
2020September-4.8
2020October-5.6
2020November-3.8
2020December-0.4
2021January0.6
2021February0.1
2021March3.4
2021April6.5
2021May8.8
2021JUne11.5

Manufacturers mainly more positive about order position

In June, manufacturers are mainly more positive about their order position. Their optimism is at the highest level since 1985. They are also more optimistic about their future output compared to the previous month. However, their opinion on stocks of finished products has deteriorated.

Manufacturers’ opinions on all three component indicators are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting a decrease. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. There are fewer manufacturers who define their current stocks of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Confidence highest in electrotechnical products and machinery industry and timber and building materials industry

In June, producer confidence is highest in the electrotechnical products and machinery industry and in the timber and building materials industry. It has improved the most in the latter industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted)
 June 2021 (average of the component questions)May 2021 (average of the component questions)
Electrotechnical products and machinery22.719.5
Timber and building materials22.717.4
Textiles, clothes, leather16.613.7
Petroleum14.912.7
Metal8.38.9
Paper and printing7.711.2
Transport equipment7.69.9
Food, beverages, tobacco5.20.7

Manufacturing output almost 13 percent up in April

In April 2021, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 12.7 percent up on April 2020. In the previous month, output was up by 3.3 percent. Output has been back to pre-coronavirus levels for a few months now. Compared to April 2019, growth amounted to 1 percent.

Producer confidence improving further in Germany

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. In June, German producer confidence has improved again according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute and has reached the highest level since April 2018. Companies reported improved business, but optimism declined with regard to expectations. In April, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry grew by over 34 percent year-on-year, as reported by Destatis. Compared to April 2019, however, output was still more than 6 percent lower.

Sources

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