Manufacturing output 11 percent down in April

© Hollandse Hoogte
In April 2020, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 11 percent down on April 2019. Output showed the largest year-on-year decrease since mid-2009, as reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS).

Average daily output manufacturing (volume)
jaarmaandchange (year-on-year % change)
2016May2.7
2016June3.2
2016July3.3
2016August2.4
2016September2.3
2016October0
2016November3.4
2016December6.7
2017January0.4
2017February4.9
2017March3
2017April0.5
2017May5
2017June2.4
2017July2.7
2017August3.7
2017September4.8
2017October5.1
2017November5.3
2017December4.4
2018January7.5
2018February3.2
2018March3.8
2018April4.7
2018May2.9
2018June3.3
2018July0.9
2018August4
2018September1.7
2018October2.4
2018November1.3
2018December-4.3
2019January-0.6
2019February-0.1
2019March-0.8
2019April-0.3
2019May-0.9
2019June-2.5
2019July0
2019August-1.7
2019September1.2
2019Oktober0.5
2019November-1.6
2019December-1.2
2020January1.4
2020February-0.9
2020March-1.9
2020April-11

Largest output decline in transport equipment industry

Of the eight largest industries within manufacturing, the transport equipment industry recorded the strongest output contraction. This is mainly due to the fact that in the automotive industry virtually all factories were closed in April. Almost all industries saw their output decline on an annual basis, except the machinery and pharmaceutical industry.

Average daily output manufacturing (volume) by sector, April 2020
Categorychange (year-on-year % change)
Machinery12.8
Food products-6.2
Electrical and electronics-10.5
Metal products-10.6
Chemical products-10.7
Rubber and plastic products-15.9
Repair and installation of machinery-20.8
Transport equipment-50.8
Manufacturing (total)-11
Altogether, the industries referred to in the above graph account for approximately 75 percent of the total manufacturing output

Downward trend

A more accurate picture of short-term output developments is obtained when figures are adjusted for seasonal effects and the working-day pattern. After adjustments, a decrease is seen in manufacturing output between March and April of 8.1 percent.

Adjusted for seasonal and working-day effects, manufacturing output is seen to fluctuate significantly. From mid-2014 until the beginning of 2018, the overall trend was upward. Subsequently, the trend has been downward.

Seasonally adjusted average daily output manufacturing (volume)
jaarmaandindex (2015=100)
2016May102.1
2016June103.3
2016July102.9
2016August101.7
2016September102.3
2016October102.5
2016November105
2016December106.3
2017January103.1
2017February105.5
2017March105.2
2017April104.6
2017May106.6
2017June106.1
2017July106.1
2017August105.6
2017September107.3
2017October107.7
2017November109.7
2017December110.4
2018January110.5
2018February109.4
2018March109.4
2018April109.4
2018May109.6
2018June109.3
2018July107.6
2018August109.3
2018September109.1
2018October109.6
2018November110.2
2018December107
2019January109.6
2019February109.2
2019March108.8
2019April108.9
2019May108.5
2019June107.3
2019July107.5
2019August107.8
2019September109.5
2019October109.7
2019November108.4
2019December106.5
2020January109.8
2020February107.8
2020March106.5
2020April97.9

Producer confidence recovering slightly

On account of the COVID-19 crisis, in April 2020 producer confidence plummeted to its lowest level since the start of the producer confidence survey in 1985. Confidence among Dutch manufacturers recovered slightly in May. Expectations about future output were still unprecedentedly negative, but to a lesser extent than in April.

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO Institute, confidence among German manufacturers was slightly less negative in May than in April. This is entirely due to the fact that entrepreneurs were less negative about their future output. In April, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was 31 percent lower than in the same month last year. This is reported by Destatis.

The figures published in this news release are provisional and subject to revisions.

Sources

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