Economic situation fairly stable

16/01/2018 15:00
According to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation has hardly changed in January. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that all indicators in the Tracer published mid-January are performing above the level of their long-term trend.

Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the economic situation and economic developments. It uses thirteen key macro-economic indicators, which - together - provide a coherent macro-economic picture of the state of the Dutch economy as published by CBS during the last month or quarter.

Business cycle tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer)

Mood among consumers improves, producer confidence hardly changes

The mood among Dutch consumers has improved marginally in December. Opinions of Dutch consumers on the economic climate and the willingness to buy have improved.
Producer confidence hardly changed in December and reached the second highest level of 2017. Manufacturers were slightly less positive about their future output.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)

Exports, household consumption and investments up

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 8.3 percent up in October 2017 relative to the same month last year. Year-on-year growth is higher than in the previous month. Investments in residential property, machinery and passenger cars in particular were up again.

The total volume of goods exports grew by 5.2 percent in October 2017 relative to October 2016. Growth was lower than in September, when exports were 7.3 percent up year-on-year. In October, exports of machinery, appliances and cars increased most notably.

Dutch household consumption was 1.7 percent up in October 2017 over October 2016. The growth rate is lower than in the previous months. Consumers mainly spent more on services and home furnishing articles. Spending on natural gas was significantly lower.

Manufacturing output over 4 percent up in November

Average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 4.4 percent up in November 2017 compared to the same month last year. The growth rate was slightly higher than in October. For over two years now, manufacturing output has continually been above the level of the same period year-on-year. The strongest growth in November was seen in the pharmaceutical industry.

Slightly more bankruptcies in December

There were 15 more bankruptcies in December than in November 2017. In November, there was a modest decrease. The total number of businesses and institutions (excluding one-man businesses) filing for bankruptcy in 2017 was 3,290. This is the lowest annual figure since 2001.

Unemployment drops below 400 thousand

For the first time since September 2009, unemployment has fallen to below 400 thousand. The number of unemployed stood at 397 thousand in November 2017. The average decline in the past three months was 10 thousand per month.

Labour market improves further

The number of jobs held by employees and self-employed saw quarter-on-quarter growth of 48 thousand in Q3 2017 to an average of 10.2 million jobs (including both full-time and part-time jobs).

Turnover temp agencies continues to rise

Turnover generated by temping agencies, employment agencies and payroll companies grew by 1.0 percent in Q3 2017 relative to Q2 2017. This growth is lower than in the preceding quarter. The total number of temp hours also increased again.

Gross Domestic Product (volume, seasonally adjusted)

GDP growth 0.4 percent in Q3 2017

Gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 0.4 percent in Q3 2017 relative to Q2 2017 as shown in the second estimate of GDP conducted by CBS. Growth is widely supported; investments, consumption and exports were higher. The GDP growth rate was 3.0 percent in Q3 2017 compared to Q3 2016.

On Wednesday 14 February 2018, CBS will publish the first estimate of GDP and employment in Q4 2017 and for the year 2017.

Sources