At the end of this year, the number of children in the Netherlands in the primary school age range - between 4 and 12 years - will be 1.52 million, 75 thousand fewer than five years ago. In the next eight years the number is expected to decrease by a further 96 thousand. As a result the number of children attending primary school will decrease.
Downward trend set to continue to 2022
The basic population forecast 2013-2060 shows that the downward trend can be expected to continue to 2022. In that year the number of children in the primary school age group will have fallen to 1.43 million. After that, it is expected to rise again.
Number of 4-11-year-olds on1 January
The decrease in the number of children of primary school ages is mainly the result of the fall in the number of births since the turn of the century. Immigration and emigration have had a smaller effect. For the years after 2018, the number of 4-11-year olds will depend on how many babies are born in the next few years, which makes the forecast less certain.
Coen van Duin and Lenny Stoeldraijer