CBS aims to improve research methodology using AI
AI technology
One area where a lot of work is being done is developing apps to collect data. Vera Toepoel, head of methodology at CBS in Heerlen, explains: ‘CBS carries out a regular Budget Survey, for example, which gives us a picture of individual spending and consumption. What are people spending their money on and how much? Currently, the participants in the survey keep a record of their spending in a kind of diary. They note down what they’ve bought – a pound of tomatoes for 1.35 euros or a pair of socks for 10 euros. But it’s a lot of work to keep track of that of all their spending. In the future, CBS wants to reduce the workload using an app in which the respondent can simply take a picture of their receipts. We will then classify the products shown on the receipt using AI technology. The use of AI is part of CBS’s ambition to minimise the burden for individuals and businesses. AI is one of our two new methodological priorities for the next few years.’Safety and accountability
Vera Toepel continues: ‘CBS recognises the opportunities of AI but is also mindful of the risks. Our priorities are always reliability and objectivity, and so we will only use AI when that can be done safely and responsibly. We’re going to carry out research into the role of AI in compiling official statistics in a way that is reliable and accurate. But those new methods will need to provide the same quality as our existing methods – or better.’Methodological toolbox
Reinoud Stoel, Head of Methodology at CBS in The Hague: ‘You can see methodology as a kind of toolbox. There are many different methods to choose between when it comes to producing official statistics and answering substantive questions. In our toolbox, for example, we have various methods of collecting and analysing data. A good methodologist will know about all the methods in the toolbox, and which method is best for a particular type of research, when a new method needs to be developed or when an existing one needs to be refined. For example, is a questionnaire the most effective way of conducting research among businesses? Or could we acquire the data that we need from an existing registry, so that we can reduce the amount of information that we ask businesses to send us? What’s the best way to use the tool you have selected? We provide advice to everybody working at CBS in these areas.’
New objectives
Given the importance of methodology, it is important to review our existing ambitions regularly, to set new goals and to respond to changing needs and future developments. CBS does this every five years through a new Methodology Research Programme. ‘The 2025–2030 programme continues six themes from the previous programme, which are still relevant,’ explains Toepoel. ‘These are: big data, data integration, information security, primary data collection (questionnaires), statistical modelling, and complexity and causality. Then there are also two new themes: the usability of AI and communicating statistical information.’Historical context
Stoel puts the shift towards AI into historical context. ‘CBS methodologists have often been at the forefront of major developments. Decades ago, they introduced the principle of producing statistics based on sampling. By presenting a questionnaire to a relatively small but carefully selected section of the population, you can get reliable information about the population as a whole. Even today, sampling is still frequently used to produce statistics – from the Holiday Survey to the Business Survey. Later, CBS moved to using data held in registries, such as the Personal Records Database and the General Business Register. This reduces the number of surveys that we ask individuals and businesses to complete, reducing the workload for them, but it also gives rise to all sorts of new questions. Registries contain data that was not collected primarily for statistical research. How do you evaluate the quality of that data? And how do you combine data from registries and questionnaires? Today, as we move towards greater use of AI, research methodology is playing an important role once again.’Figures that everybody can understand
It is important that users of CBS statistics can understand the figures that are published. The second new theme – communicating statistical information – is all about making sure that this is the case. ‘Over the next few years, our methodological research will focus on the users of our statistics,’ explains Stoel. ‘Do they understand the information we provide, and can they interpret it correctly? Can we devise new ways of visualising information to help people understand it better? Together with our Communications & News division, for example, we have carried out research on how we can improve CBS’s annual flagship publication The Netherlands in Numbers. We also looked at both the attractiveness of different forms of visualisation and their methodological correctness. We’ll use the results of our research among users to make further improvements.’ Toepoel: ‘Another aspect of our new theme of communicating statistical information is exploring how best to communicate the concept of uncertainty in statistics, because statistics never involve 100 percent certainty. But we want to make sure we do this in a way that it strengthens the information we provide, rather than weakens it. That remains a challenge.’Related items
- Website - Methods
- Article - Ensuring the quality of statistics using scientific methods