Economic picture deteriorates

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool used to monitor the state of the Dutch economy. It provides an overall macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all figures published by CBS. This picture will still vary between households, enterprises or regions, however.
Year | Month | cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0)) |
---|---|---|
2021 | May | 0.19 |
2021 | Juni | 0.28 |
2021 | Juli | 0.43 |
2021 | August | 0.5 |
2021 | September | 0.57 |
2021 | October | 0.66 |
2021 | November | 0.67 |
2021 | December | 0.69 |
2022 | January | 0.74 |
2022 | February | 0.72 |
2022 | March | 0.73 |
2022 | April | 0.78 |
2022 | May | 0.77 |
2022 | June | 0.79 |
2022 | July | 0.84 |
2022 | August | 0.82 |
2022 | September | 0.82 |
2022 | October | 0.8 |
2022 | November | 0.76 |
2022 | December | 0.73 |
2023 | January | 0.66 |
2023 | February | 0.62 |
2023 | March | 0.58 |
2023 | April | 0.47 |
2023 | May | 0.39 |
2023 | June | 0.29 |
2023 | July | 0.13 |
2023 | August | 0.02 |
2023 | September | -0.1 |
2023 | October | -0.24 |
2023 | November | -0.32 |
2023 | December | -0.4 |
2024 | January | -0.5 |
2024 | February | -0.54 |
2024 | March | -0.57 |
2024 | April | -0.63 |
2024 | May | -0.64 |
2024 | June | -0.65 |
2024 | July | -0.69 |
2024 | August | -0.67 |
2024 | September | -0.66 |
2024 | October | -0.67 |
2024 | November | -0.63 |
2024 | December | -0.6 |
2025 | January | -0.64 |
2025 | February | -0.63 |
2025 | March | -0.64 |
2025 | April | -0.72 |
Consumers and producers more negative
Consumers and producers were more negative in April than they were in the previous month. Consumer and producer confidence were below the long-term average for the past twenty years.
Year | Month | Consumer confidence (average of the component questions) | Producer confidence (average of the component questions) |
---|---|---|---|
2021 | May | -9 | 5.6 |
2021 | June | -3 | 7.8 |
2021 | July | -4 | 9.2 |
2021 | August | -6 | 7.1 |
2021 | September | -5 | 9.1 |
2021 | October | -10 | 10.4 |
2021 | November | -19 | 10.1 |
2021 | December | -25 | 7.3 |
2022 | January | -28 | 6.5 |
2022 | February | -30 | 5.8 |
2022 | March | -39 | 5.7 |
2022 | April | -48 | 7.2 |
2022 | May | -47 | 5.8 |
2022 | June | -50 | 4.2 |
2022 | July | -51 | 5.3 |
2022 | August | -54 | 2.4 |
2022 | September | -59 | 1.2 |
2022 | October | -59 | 0.9 |
2022 | November | -57 | 1.1 |
2022 | December | -52 | 1 |
2023 | January | -49 | 1.1 |
2023 | February | -44 | 0.9 |
2023 | March | -39 | 0.9 |
2023 | April | -37 | -0.3 |
2023 | May | -38 | -1.7 |
2023 | June | -39 | -2.7 |
2023 | July | -39 | -2.7 |
2023 | August | -40 | -4.6 |
2023 | September | -39 | -3.9 |
2023 | October | -38 | -3.7 |
2023 | November | -33 | -2.6 |
2023 | December | -29 | -5.7 |
2014 | January | -28 | -4.4 |
2014 | February | -27 | -4.2 |
2014 | March | -22 | -4.8 |
2014 | April | -21 | -3.6 |
2014 | May | -22 | -2.8 |
2014 | June | -23 | -2.4 |
2014 | July | -24 | -2.7 |
2014 | August | -24 | -1.9 |
2014 | September | -21 | -1.7 |
2014 | October | -22 | -3.2 |
2014 | November | -25 | -1.8 |
2014 | December | -26 | -1.6 |
2025 | January | -28 | -1.6 |
2025 | February | -32 | -1.2 |
2025 | March | -34 | -1.5 |
2025 | April | -37 | -3.3 |
Household consumption and exports up, investment down
Manufacturing output 1 percent higher in February
In February 2025, the calendar-adjusted output of the Dutch manufacturing sector was 1.0 percent higher than it was in February 2024. This was the second consecutive month in which there has been an increase in output, after a year and a half of declines. After adjustment for seasonal and calendar effects, manufacturing output rose by 1.2 percent in February relative to January.
Fewer bankruptcies in March
Adjusted for the number of court session days, there were 92 fewer bankruptcies in March than in February. That was a decrease of 25 percent.
House prices up by 10.6 percent in March
In March, the average price of an owner-occupied dwelling (excluding newbuild homes) was the same as in February, an increase of 10.6 percent year on year. Prices in March rose by 0.7 percent relative to February.
Fewer number of hours worked and vacancies, more people unemployed
In Q1 2025, employees and self-employed persons worked a total of over 3.7 billion hours. Adjusted for seasonal effects, this was 0.5 percent less than the previous quarter.
The number of vacancies decreased by nearly 7 thousand to 395 thousand in the first quarter of 2025.
Unemployment stood at 395 thousand in March 2025. The number of people unemployed increased by a monthly average of 7 thousand over the past three months. As a result, the unemployment rate amounted to 3.9 percent in March. This was 3.8 percent in February.
In Q4 2024, the turnover of temporary employment and job placement agencies was 0.8 percent higher than in Q4 2023.
Economic growth of 0.1 percent in Q1 2024
According to the first estimate by Statistics Netherlands (CBS), gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.1 percent in Q1 2025, relative to the previous quarter. GDP growth in the first quarter was mainly due to a smaller reduction in inventories. Public conumption also contributed positively.
Year | Quarter | Index (2021=100) |
---|---|---|
2021 | 2e kwartaal | 100 |
2021 | 3e kwartaal | 101.9 |
2021 | 4e kwartaal | 102 |
2022 | 1e kwartaal | 103 |
2022 | 2e kwartaal | 105.7 |
2022 | 3e kwartaal | 105.7 |
2022 | 4e kwartaal | 105.6 |
2023 | 1e kwartaal | 105.4 |
2023 | 2e kwartaal | 105.2 |
2023 | 3e kwartaal | 104.8 |
2023 | 4e kwartaal | 104.9 |
2024 | 1e kwartaal | 104.8 |
2024 | 2e kwartaal | 105.9 |
2024 | 3e kwartaal | 106.7 |
2024 | 4e kwartaal | 107 |
2025 | 1e kwartaal | 107.1 |
Related items
- Visualisations - Business Cycle Tracer
- Dossier - Business cycle