The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.
|Year||Month||cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))|
Consumer and producer confidence deteriorated
In August 2023, Dutch consumers were marginally more negative than they were in the previous month. Consumer confidence was positioned well below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producer confidence also declined in August and was negative for the first time since 2021. Producer confidence was also below the 20-year average.
|Year||Month||Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)||Producer confidence (average of the component questions)|
Household consumption and investments up, exports down
Households spent 1.2 percent more in June 2023 year on year, adjusted for price changes and the shopping-day pattern. They purchased both more services and more goods.
In June 2023, the volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was up by 7.0 percent year on year. This is mainly due to higher investments in transport equipment, machinery, infrastructure and buildings.
The total volume of goods exports (adjusted for number of working days) fell by 1.5 percent in June year on year. The decrease was mainly seen in exports of chemical, metal and food products. Exports of transport equipment, machinery and appliances were up compared to one year previously.
Manufacturing output almost 8 percent down in June
In June 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 7.7 percent lower than in June 2022. Output also contracted year on year in the preceding months of this year. Relative to May, output rose by 0.7 percent in June.
Fewer bankruptcies in July
There were 49 fewer bankruptcies in July 2023 than in the previous month; a decrease of 16 percent. Year on year, however, the number of bankruptcies has increased for 15 months in a row.
House prices 5.5 percent lower in July
In July, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 5.5 percent cheaper than in July 2022. The decrease is the same as in the previous month. Relative to June, the price index of existing owner-occupied dwellings increased by 0.5 percent in July.
Fewer hours worked and vacancies, more unemployed
In Q2 2023, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, was 0.3 percent lower than in the previous quarter. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q2 2023 amounted to over 3.6 billion.
At the end of June, there were 427 thousand unfilled vacancies, 10 thousand fewer than at the end of March 2023. After eight quarters of growth, between mid-2020 and mid-2022, the number of vacancies has decreased from the third quarter of 2022.
In July 2023, 362 thousand people aged 15 to 74 years were unemployed. This is 3.6 percent of the labour force. Over the three months May through July, unemployment increased by 6 thousand per month on average
In Q1 2023, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 3.2 percent relative to the previous quarter.
Economic contraction 0.3 percent in Q2 2023
According to the first quarterly estimate conducted by CBS, in Q2 2023 the volume of gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3 percent relative to the previous quarter. In Q1 2023, GDP fell by 0.4 percent. The contraction in Q2 is mainly due to a decrease in the trade balance and in household consumption.