Economic outlook again more negative

The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.

Consumers less pessimistic, producers less positive

Consumers were again less gloomy in April than they were in the previous month. However, confidence was still low and well below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producer confidence deteriorated in April, but was above its long-term average.

Household consumption, investments and exports up

In February 2023, the total volume of goods exports (working-day adjusted) was up by 5.8 percent year on year. The increase was mainly seen in exports of petroleum products, machinery and appliances, and transport equipment.

Households spent 2.6 percent more in February 2023 year on year, adjusted for price changes and shopping-day pattern. They mainly spent more on services.

In February 2023, the volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was up by 5.2 percent year on year. This was mainly due to higher investments in buildings, passenger cars, machinery and other road transport vehicles such as delivery vans and lorries.

Manufacturing output down in February

In February 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 2.0 percent lower than in February 2022. In January, it contracted by 2.3 percent.

Fewer bankruptcies in March

The number of corporate bankruptcies, adjusted for court session days, has decreased. There were 69 fewer bankruptcies in March than in the previous month. This is a decline of 25 percent. The number of bankruptcies remained low compared to the pre-pandemic period.

House price decrease in March

In March, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 2.3 percent cheaper than in March 2022. In the previous month, the year-on-year decline was 0.8 percent.

More hours worked, virtually unchanged unemployment, fewer job vacancies

In Q4 2022, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, was 1.1 percent higher than in Q3 2022. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q4 2022 amounted to almost 3.7 billion.

At the end of December, there were 442 thousand unfilled vacancies, 7 thousand fewer than at the end of Q3. It is the second consecutive drop after the number of vacancies increased for eight quarters in a row.

In March, 357 thousand people aged 15 to 74 years were unemployed. From January through March, unemployment increased by an average of 2 thousand per month. The unemployment rate in that month stood at 3.5 percent, just as in February.

In Q4 2022, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 1.8 percent relative to the previous quarter.

Economic growth 0.6 percent in Q4 2022

According to the second quarterly estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) on the basis of currently available data, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6 percent in Q4 2022 relative to the previous quarter. Growth in Q4 was broad-based, with household consumption and public consumption making the largest contributions.