Economic outlook again more negative
The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.
|Year||Month||cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))|
Consumers less pessimistic, producer confidence improves
Consumers are again less gloomy in March than they were in the previous month. However, consumer confidence is still low and well below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producer confidence has improved slightly in March and is above its long-term average.
|Year||Month||Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)||Producer confidence (average of the component questions)|
Household consumption, investments and exports up
Households spent 6.2 percent more in January 2023 year on year, adjusted for price changes and differences in the shopping-day pattern. Just as in the previous months, they spent more on services but less on goods. In January 2022, non-essential shops and the service sector were faced with strict coronavirus measures.
In January, the volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was up by 9.3 percent year on year. This is mainly because of more investments in buildings, aircraft and passenger cars.
In December, the total volume of goods exports (adjusted for working days) was up by 4.7 percent year on year. The increase over December was mainly seen in exports of petroleum products, machinery and appliances. However, the export of chemical products was lower than in December 2021.
Manufacturing output almost 3 percent down in January
In January 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 2.9 percent lower than in January 2022. This is the first decline in almost two years.
More bankruptcies in February
The number of corporate bankruptcies, adjusted for court session days, has increased. There were 49 more bankruptcies in February than in the previous month. This is an increase of 21 percent. The number of bankruptcies remained below the pre-pandemic level.
House price decrease in February
In February, prices of owner-occupied dwellings were lower year on year for the first time since April 2014. Owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 0.8 percent cheaper than in February 2022. Relative to January, the price index of owner-occupied dwellings decreased by 1.5 percent in February.
More hours worked, lower unemployment and fewer job vacancies
In Q4 2022, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, was 1.1 percent higher than in Q3 2022. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q4 2022 amounted to almost 3.7 billion.
At the end of December, there were 442 thousand unfilled vacancies, 7 thousand fewer than at the end of the third quarter. It is the second consecutive drop after the number of vacancies increased for eight quarters in a row.
In February, 356 thousand people aged 15 to 74 years were unemployed. As a result, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6 percent in January to 3.5 percent in February. From December through February, unemployment declined by an average of 3 thousand per month.
In Q4 2022, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 1.8 percent relative to the previous quarter.
Economic growth of 0.6 percent in Q4 2022
According to the second quarterly estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) on the basis of currently available data, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6 percent in Q4 2022 relative to the previous quarter. Growth in Q4 was broad-based, with household consumption and public consumption making the largest contributions.
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