Economic outlook again more negative

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© CBS / Nikki van Toorn
The economic climate in March 2023 is more negative than it was in February, according to the CBS Business Cycle Tracer. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports that as of March, 7 out of the 13 indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer are performing above their long-term trend.

The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.

Business Cycle Tracer indicator (unweighted average of the indicators in the CBS Business Cycle Tracer)
YearMonthcycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))
2017January0.22
2017February0.29
2017March0.33
2017April0.37
2017May0.42
2017June0.46
2017July0.49
2017August0.55
2017September0.59
2017October0.63
2017November0.69
2017December0.74
2018January0.78
2018February0.83
2018March0.85
2018April0.85
2018May0.87
2018June0.86
2018July0.84
2018August0.85
2018September0.85
2018October0.83
2018November0.82
2018December0.79
2019January0.74
2019February0.71
2019March0.67
2019April0.64
2019May0.62
2019June0.59
2019July0.56
2019August0.52
2019September0.49
2019October0.47
2019November0.42
2019December0.51
2020January0.39
2020February0.31
2020March0.2
2020April-0.36
2020May-1.05
2020June-1.99
2020July-2.01
2020August-1.33
2020September-1.19
2020October-0.98
2020November-0.92
2020December-0.68
2021January-0.79
2021February-1.01
2021March-0.97
2021April-0.83
2021May-0.59
2021Juni-0.43
2021Juli-0.14
2021August0.25
2021September0.33
2021October0.41
2021November0.5
2021December0.53
2022January0.49
2022February0.19
2022March0.34
2022April0.42
2022May0.55
2022June0.55
2022July0.45
2022August0.4
2022September0.27
2022October0.12
2022November0.05
2022December-0.06
2023January-0.18
2023February-0.29
2023March-0.4

Consumers less pessimistic, producer confidence improves

Consumers are again less gloomy in March than they were in the previous month. However, consumer confidence is still low and well below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producer confidence has improved slightly in March and is above its long-term average.

Consumer and producer confidence (seasonally adjusted)
YearMonthConsumer confidence (average of the component questions)Producer confidence (average of the component questions)
2019January05.8
2019February-26.3
2019March-46.1
2019April-36.7
2019May-34.7
2019June03.3
2019July 23.9
2019August03.9
2019September-23.3
2019October-13.6
2019November-22.8
2019December-22.9
2020January-32.5
2020February-23.7
2020March-20.2
2020April-22-28.7
2020May-31-25.1
2020June-27-15.1
2020July-26-8.7
2020August-29-5.4
2020September-28-4.8
2020October-30-5.6
2020November-26-3.8
2020December-20-0.4
2021January-190.6
2021February-190.1
2021March-183.4
2021April-146.5
2021May-98.8
2021June-311.5
2021July-412.3
2021August-69.6
2021September-511.1
2021October-1012.3
2021November-1912.7
2021December-2510.2
2022January-289
2022February-308.5
2022March-398.7
2022April-4810.8
2022May-479.9
2022June-508.1
2022July -518.4
2022August-544.6
2022September-592.6
2022October-592.5
2022November-573
2022December-523.3
2023January-493.6
2023February-443.7
2023March-394

Household consumption, investments and exports up

Households spent 6.2 percent more in January 2023 year on year, adjusted for price changes and differences in the shopping-day pattern. Just as in the previous months, they spent more on services but less on goods. In January 2022, non-essential shops and the service sector were faced with strict coronavirus measures.

In January, the volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was up by 9.3 percent year on year. This is mainly because of more investments in buildings, aircraft and passenger cars.

In December, the total volume of goods exports (adjusted for working days) was up by 4.7 percent year on year. The increase over December was mainly seen in exports of petroleum products, machinery and appliances. However, the export of chemical products was lower than in December 2021.

Manufacturing output almost 3 percent down in January

In January 2023, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 2.9 percent lower than in January 2022. This is the first decline in almost two years.

More bankruptcies in February

The number of corporate bankruptcies, adjusted for court session days, has increased. There were 49 more bankruptcies in February than in the previous month. This is an increase of 21 percent. The number of bankruptcies remained below the pre-pandemic level.

House price decrease in February

In February, prices of owner-occupied dwellings were lower year on year for the first time since April 2014. Owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 0.8 percent cheaper than in February 2022. Relative to January, the price index of owner-occupied dwellings decreased by 1.5 percent in February.

More hours worked, lower unemployment and fewer job vacancies

In Q4 2022, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, was 1.1 percent higher than in Q3 2022. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q4 2022 amounted to almost 3.7 billion.

At the end of December, there were 442 thousand unfilled vacancies, 7 thousand fewer than at the end of the third quarter. It is the second consecutive drop after the number of vacancies increased for eight quarters in a row.

In February, 356 thousand people aged 15 to 74 years were unemployed. As a result, the unemployment rate fell from 3.6 percent in January to 3.5 percent in February. From December through February, unemployment declined by an average of 3 thousand per month.

In Q4 2022, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 1.8 percent relative to the previous quarter.

GDP (volume), seasonally adjusted
YearQuarterIndex (2015=100)
2015Quarter 199.6
2015Quarter 299.9
2015Quarter 3100.2
2015Quarter 4100.3
2016Quarter 1101.2
2016Quarter 2101.4
2016Quarter 3102.6
2016Quarter 4103.4
2017Quarter 1104
2017Quarter 2104.9
2017Quarter 3105.6
2017Quarter 4106.4
2018Quarter 1106.9
2018Quarter 2107.6
2018Quarter 3107.8
2018Quarter 4108.3
2019Quarter 1109
2019Quarter 2109.5
2019Quarter 3109.9
2019Quarter 4110.4
2020Quarter 1108.8
2020Quarter 2100.1
2020Quarter 3106.5
2020Quarter 4106.4
2021Quarter 1106.6
2021Quarter 2110.4
2021Quarter 3112.4
2021Quarter 4112.9
2022Quarter 1113.1
2022Quarter 2116.2
2022Quarter 3116.2
2022Quarter 4116.9

Economic growth of 0.6 percent in Q4 2022

According to the second quarterly estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) on the basis of currently available data, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 0.6 percent in Q4 2022 relative to the previous quarter. Growth in Q4 was broad-based, with household consumption and public consumption making the largest contributions.