Economic outlook negative
The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.
|Year||Month||cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))|
Consumers less pessimistic, producer confidence improving
Consumers are slightly less gloomy in January than they were in December. However, consumer confidence is still exceptionally low. It is well below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producer confidence has also improved slightly in January and is above its long-term average.
|Year||Month||Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)||Producer confidence (average of the component questions)|
Higher household consumption, exports and investments
In November 2022, the total volume (adjusted for working days) of goods exports was up by 4.8 percent year on year. The increase over November was mainly seen in exports of petroleum products, transport equipment and machinery and appliances.
The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was up by 3.1 percent in November 2022 year on year. This is mainly because of more investments in buildings and other road transport (e.g. lorries and delivery vans). There were fewer investments in infrastructure.
Households spent 2.7 percent more in November 2022 year on year, adjusted for price changes and differences in the shopping day pattern. Just as in the previous months, they spent more on services but less on goods.
Manufacturing output down by a fraction in November
In November 2022, the average daily output of the Dutch manufacturing industry was 0.2 percent lower than in November 2021. It was the first year-on-year contraction since March 2021. After adjustments, a 2.0-percent decline was seen in manufacturing output from October to November.
Number of bankruptcies increased further in December
The number of companies declared bankrupt (including sole proprietorships), adjusted for court session days, increased for the fourth consecutive month in December. There were 34 more bankruptcies in December than in November 2022.
House price increase levelled off further in December
In December, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 2.7 percent more expensive than in the same month of the previous year, down from 4.9 percent in November. It was the lowest year-on-year price increase in more than seven years. Relative to November, the price index of owner-occupied dwellings fell by 2.3 percent in December.
Fewer hours worked and job vacancies, but also lower unemployment
In Q3 2022, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, was 1.6 percent lower than in Q2 2022. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q3 2022 amounted to approximately 3.6 billion.
At the end of September, there were 449 thousand unfilled vacancies, 17 thousand less than at the end of the second quarter. It is the first drop after the number of vacancies increased for eight consecutive quarters.
In December 2022, there were 352 thousand unemployed, equivalent to 3.5 percent of the labour force. From October through December, unemployment declined by an average of 10 thousand per month.
In Q3 2022, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 2.5 percent relative to the previous quarter.
Economic contraction 0.2 percent in Q3 2022
According to the second quarterly estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) on the basis of currently available data, in Q3 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.2 percent relative to the previous quarter. This was due to lower investments, mainly those in dwellings and in infrastructure.
According to the second estimate, GDP was up by 3.1 percent relative to Q3 2021. In particular, the trade balance, household consumption and investments contributed to this growth.
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