Economic outlook again less positive
The Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.
|Year||Month||cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))|
Consumers less pessimistic, producer confidence improving
Consumers are slightly less gloomy in November than they were in October, when a record low in consumer confidence was reached.Consumer confidence was well below the long-term average over the past two decades. Producer confidence was slightly more positive in November than a month earlier and was above its long-term average.
|Year||Month||Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)||Producer confidence (average of the component questions)|
Higher household consumption, exports and investments
In September 2022, the total volume of goods exports (adjusted for working days) was up by 2.9 percent year on year. Growth was slightly larger than in the previous two months. The increase over September was mainly seen in exports of transport equipment and machinery and appliances.
Households spent 2.2 percent more in September 2022 year on year, adjusted for price changes and differences in the shopping day pattern. As in the previous months, they again spent more on services, but less on goods.
In September 2022, the volume of investments in tangible fixed assets was 4.4 percent larger year on year. This is mainly because investments in buildings and aircraft were up.
Manufacturing output almost 5 percent up in September
In September 2022, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 4.6 percent on September 2021. Growth has been fairly stable over the past four months, but smaller than in the preceding months.
More bankruptcies in October
There were 45 more bankruptcies (including sole proprietorships) in October than in the previous month. The number of pronounced bankruptcies is low compared to the period before the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis. In the first ten months of 2022, it was over 10 higher than in the first ten months of 2021.
House price increase levelled off further in October
In October, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 7.8 percent more expensive than in the same month last year. The price increase was 9.4 percent in September. It is the sixth consecutive month that the price increase levelled off.
Relative to September, the price index of owner-occupied dwellings fell by 0.5 percent in October. The price index also fell in the previous two months.
Fewer hours worked and job vacancies, but also lower unemployment
In Q3 2022, the number of hours worked, adjusted for seasonal effects, was 1.6 percent lower than in Q2 2022. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q3 2022 amounted to approximately 3.6 billion.
At the end of September, there were 449 thousand unfilled vacancies, 17 thousand less than at the end of the second quarter. It is the first drop after the number of vacancies increased for eight consecutive quarters.
In October 2022, there were 365 thousand unemployed, equivalent to 3.7 percent of the labour force. This means the unemployment rate was lower than in September (3.8 percent). From August through October, unemployment did rise by an average of 4 thousand per month.
In Q2 2022, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 0.7 percent relative to the previous quarter.
Economic contraction 0.2 percent in Q3 2022
According to the first quarterly estimate conducted by Statistics Netherlands (CBS) on the basis of currently available data, in Q3 2022 gross domestic product (GDP) decreased by 0.2 percent relative to the previous quarter. This was due to lower investments, mainly those in dwellings and in infrastructure.
According to the first estimate, GDP was up by 3.1 percent relative to Q3 2021. In particular, the trade balance, household consumption and investments contributed to this growth.
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