Economic outlook slightly more positive

The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy. It presents a coherent macroeconomic picture of the past month or quarter, based on all the figures published by CBS. However, it does not apply equally to all households, enterprises or regions.

Producer sentiment improves; consumers more negative

In April 2022, consumer confidence has deteriorated on the previous month for the seventh month in a row. It has reached an all-time low and is positioned far below the average over the past two decades. However, producer confidence has improved in April and is positioned well above its long-term average.

Higher household consumption, investments and exports

In February 2022, consumer spending was 13.8 percent higher than one year previously. Consumers mainly spent more on durable goods and services. Relative to February 2020, they spent 0.4 percent more.

The volume of investments in tangible fixed assets grew by 5.0 percent year on year. Property investments (in dwellings and buildings) were up in particular. Compared to February 2020, investments were 2.5 percent lower.

The total volume of goods exports was up by 2.8 percent year on year, as reported by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). In the previous month, exports grew by 3.3 percent. The increase over February was mainly seen in exports of metal products and transport equipment.

Manufacturing output over 10 percent up in February

In February 2022, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 10.2 percent on February 2021. Output grew by 7.4 percent in the previous month.

Slightly more bankruptcies in March

The number of corporate bankruptcies, adjusted for court session days, has increased. There were 7 more bankruptcies in March than in the previous month. However, the number of pronounced bankruptcies is low compared to the period before the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis.

House price increase 19.5 percent in March

In March, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 19.5 percent more expensive than in the same month last year. The price increase is again slightly smaller than in the previous month.

More vacancies, fewer unemployed and fewer hours worked

In Q4 2021, the number of hours worked adjusted for seasonal effects was 0.2 percent lower than in Q3 2021. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q4 2021 amounted to approximately 3.5 billion.

In the period January through March, unemployment declined by an average of 14 thousand per month. This resulted in 327 thousand unemployed in March 2022, i.e. 3.3 percent of the labour force.

At the end of December, the number of unfilled vacancies stood at 387 thousand. This is 16 thousand more than at the end of the previous quarter. The increase in Q4 was less strong than in the previous three quarters, but surpassed the record of Q3 (372 thousand).

In Q4 2021, turnover at temporary employment and job placement agencies rose by 4.8 percent relative to the previous quarter. Year on year, this turnover increased by 14.5 percent.

1.0 percent GDP growth in Q4 2021

According to the second estimate conducted by CBS, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.0 percent in Q4 2021 relative to the previous quarter.  Growth in Q4 was largely due to increased public consumption, investments and the trade balance.

GDP growth in Q4 2021 relative to Q4 2020 amounted to 6.5 percent. With the release of data on Q4, the provisional annual growth rate over 2021 has become available. GDP was up by 5.0 percent year on year in 2021.