Economic outlook improving
The CBS Business Cycle Tracer is a tool to monitor the state and the cycle of the Dutch economy with 13 key macro-economic indicators. It provides a coherent macro-economic picture based on all the figures published by CBS over the past month or quarter and does not necessarily represent the situation at the level of individual households, businesses or regions.
|Year||Month||cycle (distance to the long-term trend (=0))|
Producer confidence improved, consumer confidence more negative
In October, producer confidence improved and equaled the record high in July 2021. Consumer confidence was more negative compared to September and was positioned below its long-term average.
|Year||Month||Consumer confidence (average of the component questions)||Producer confidence (average of the component questions)|
Higher household consumption, exports and investments
In Q3 2021, consumers spent 5.0 percent more than in Q3 2020. They spent mainly more on accommodation and food services, recreation and culture, transportation and communication, and clothing. Accommodation and food services were accessible until midnight again. Sports activities were also held in the third quarter and the public was allowed to attend. Small-scale events were allowed and museums and amusement parks were able to receive visitors again.
In Q3 2021, the volume of investments in fixed assets was 2.3 percent up on the same quarter last year. Investments were mainly up in machinery and dwellings. Investments in software and R&D were also higher than one year previously. Investments in passenger cars, however, were considerable lower.
Exports of goods and services in Q3 2021 were 7.2 percent up year-on-year. More machinery, chemical and metal products were exported in particular. Exports of services were also higher than in the third quarter of 2020.
Manufacturing output almost 11 percent up in September
In September 2021, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was up by 10.9 percent from September 2020. Output was up by 9.4 percent in the previous month. Compared to September 2019, growth was over 4 percent.
Fewer bankruptcies in October
The number of corporate bankruptcies, adjusted for court session days, decreased. There were 9 fewer bankruptcies in October than in the previous month. The number of pronounced bankruptcies remained at a historically low level.
House prices continue to rise
In September, owner-occupied dwellings (excluding new constructions) were on average 18.5 percent more expensive than in the same month last year. It is the largest increase since August 2000. The price rise moderated slightly in 2019 but picked up again after that.
More hours worked, more vacancies, fewer unemployed
In Q3 2021, the number of hours worked adjusted for seasonal effects was 2.1 percent higher than in Q2 2021. Total hours worked by employees and self-employed people over Q3 2021 amounted to approximately 3.5 billion.
In Q3 2021, 294 thousand people were unemployed (ILO definition), 3.1 percent of the labour force. Compared to Q2, the number of unemployed decreased by 13 thousand. Unemployment fell for the fourth consecutive quarter. Despite the decline, the level in the third quarter was still higher than before the coronavirus crisis, with 277 thousand unemployed in the first quarter of 2020.
At the end of September, the number of unfilled vacancies stood at 371 thousand. This is 45 thousand more than at the end of the previous quarter. This surpasses the record high of the previous quarter (327 thousand).
A further increase in the number of vacancies, together with falling unemployment, led to even greater tension in the labour market in the third quarter of 2021. There were 126 vacancies for every 100 unemployed.
In Q2 2021, turnover at temporary employment agencies rose by 3.0 percent relative to the previous quarter. Year-on-year, this turnover increased by 20.1 percent.
1.9 percent GDP growth in Q3 2021
According to the first estimate conducted by CBS, gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 1.9 percent in Q3 2021 relative to the previous quarter. This economic growth was mainly due to increased household consumption. Public consumption also contributed positively. Relative to Q3 2020, GDP was up by 5.0 percent.
- Dossier - Business Cycle