Sociale spanningen-indicator: Peilstok samenleving

Eerder berichtte het CBS over de ontwikkeling van de sociale spanningen-indicator op basis van sociale media berichten. Deze indicator is ontwikkeld door het Center for Big Data Statistics (CBDS) van het CBS en is bedoeld om de spanningen in de samenleving te meten. Door de focus op maatschappelijke onrust onderscheidt de sociale spanningen-indicator zich van meer algemene metingen van positief of negatief sentiment op sociale media. Er is gebruik gemaakt van een lijst met woorden, die specifiek betrekking hebben op gevoelens van spanningen en onrust. Op basis van deze lijst met woorden is het percentage dagelijkse Twitterberichten in kaart gebracht, dat over deze onderwerpen gaat.

De indicator is vanaf 1 januari 2010 tot en met medio december 2018 per dag bijgewerkt. Vanaf december 2017 is er een stijging in de sociale spanningen waarneembaar. Additionele analyse toont aan dat er in deze periode relatief meer berichten zijn gepost, die negatieve veranderingen in de samenleving melden. Specifieke voorbeelden hiervan zijn gebeurtenissen met betrekking tot migratiebeleid (met name reacties op de mogelijke uitzetting van twee Armeense tieners), alsmede de zwartepietendiscussie en de rellen tijdens de intocht van Sinterklaas in 2018. Een ander voorbeeld betreft de mogelijke negatieve gevolgen van de verbreding van de bevoegdheden van de inlichtingendiensten, in combinatie met de verscherpte privacywetgeving.

Methode

In de analyse zijn meegenomen alle openbare Nederlandstalige tweets en retweets door Nederlandse gebruikers, gepost in Nederland. Dit impliceert dat berichten van dat deel van de Nederlandse bevolking, dat op Twitter actief is, als uitgangspunt is genomen voor het weergeven van sociale spanningen onder de Nederlandse bevolking. Het is bekend dat gebruikers van sociale netwerken, zoals Twitter, niet representatief zijn voor de bevolking. Ook is bekend dat jongeren nog steeds oververtegenwoordigd zijn op dergelijke netwerken (CBS, 2018). Eerder CBS-onderzoek heeft echter aangetoond dat sociale media bruikbaar zijn voor het meten van op sentiment gebaseerde indicatoren. Ook is aangetoond dat berichtgeving op sociale media een goede indicatie vormt voor sentimenten in de samenleving (Daas en Puts, 2014; Van den Brakel et al., 2017).

De berichten, die gevoelens van spanning en onrust weerspiegelen, zijn afgezet tegen het totaal aantal berichten per dag. Op basis van diepte-interviews is vastgesteld welke woorden mensen gebruiken als zij onveiligheid beschrijven. Deze lijst is met synoniemen aangevuld tot ongeveer 350 woorden en gecheckt door een groep experts van het CBS. De woorden uit deze lijst, die het meest op sociale media worden gebruikt, zijn vervolgens meegenomen in de definitieve woordenlijst. Berichten over sportevenementen en politiek zijn uit de selectieberichten gefilterd omdat deze een verstorend effect hadden. Tot slot zijn de pieken in de indicator gevalideerd; er is gecheckt welke gebeurtenissen op of vlak voor de betreffende datum plaatsvonden en daarna is bekeken of de geselecteerde berichten daadwerkelijk over deze gebeurtenis(sen) gingen. Voor het bepalen van de trend is een mediaanfilter gebruikt over een voortschrijdende periode van 50 dagen. Er is gekozen voor de mediaan, de middelste waarde, omdat deze minder gevoelig is voor extreme waarden (de pieken).

Resultaten

In de visualisatie is te zien dat de sociale spanningen-indicator varieert over tijd. Ook is te zien dat de indicator met enige regelmaat scherpe pieken vertoont. Deze pieken geven momenten in de tijd weer, waarop relatief veel berichten zijn geplaatst, die gevoelens van spanningen en onrust uitdrukken. Voorbeelden hiervan zijn de grote piek in 2010, die samengaat met de verstoring van de Nationale Dodenherdenking op 4 mei in Amsterdam (de Damschreeuwer) en pieken, die met aanslagen te maken hebben. Voorbeelden zijn de MH17 ramp (17 juli 2014) en de aanslagen in Parijs (13 november 2015) en Brussel (22 maart 2016). Vanaf eind 2017 is een duidelijke verandering in de sociale spanningen-indicator waarneembaar. Er is vanaf dat moment sprake van een sterke toename van de lange termijn trend (de basislijn).

Sociale spanningen-indicator (% berichten die sociale spanningen weergeven)
 IndicatorTrend
01-01-'100,410,35
02-01-'100,100,35
03-01-'100,200,35
04-01-'100,300,35
05-01-'100,500,35
06-01-'100,340,35
07-01-'100,440,35
08-01-'100,430,35
09-01-'100,400,35
10-01-'100,440,35
11-01-'100,370,35
12-01-'100,410,35
13-01-'100,580,35
14-01-'100,250,35
15-01-'100,400,35
16-01-'100,340,35
17-01-'100,410,35
18-01-'100,340,35
19-01-'100,350,35
20-01-'100,480,35
21-01-'100,410,35
22-01-'100,420,35
23-01-'100,300,35
24-01-'100,370,35
25-01-'100,230,35
26-01-'100,460,35
27-01-'100,400,35
28-01-'100,430,35
29-01-'100,270,35
30-01-'100,590,35
31-01-'100,450,35
01-02-'100,250,35
02-02-'100,280,35
03-02-'100,350,35
04-02-'100,280,35
05-02-'100,280,35
06-02-'100,360,35
07-02-'100,320,35
08-02-'100,310,35
09-02-'100,340,35
10-02-'100,380,35
11-02-'100,320,35
12-02-'100,410,35
13-02-'100,300,35
14-02-'100,230,35
15-02-'100,210,35
16-02-'100,280,35
17-02-'100,360,35
18-02-'100,280,35
19-02-'100,270,35
20-02-'100,520,35
21-02-'100,510,35
22-02-'100,450,35
23-02-'100,450,35
24-02-'100,410,35
25-02-'100,440,35
26-02-'100,420,35
27-02-'100,450,35
28-02-'100,330,35
01-03-'100,350,35
02-03-'100,390,35
03-03-'100,330,35
04-03-'100,300,35
05-03-'100,320,35
06-03-'100,280,35
07-03-'100,410,35
08-03-'100,240,35
09-03-'100,290,35
10-03-'100,350,35
11-03-'100,280,35
12-03-'100,270,35
13-03-'100,490,36
14-03-'100,300,36
15-03-'100,350,36
16-03-'100,530,36
17-03-'100,490,36
18-03-'100,360,36
19-03-'100,310,36
20-03-'100,360,36
21-03-'100,390,36
22-03-'100,320,36
23-03-'100,280,36
24-03-'100,400,36
25-03-'100,210,36
26-03-'100,270,36
27-03-'100,370,36
28-03-'100,430,36
29-03-'100,390,36
30-03-'100,320,36
31-03-'100,490,36
01-04-'100,310,36
02-04-'100,340,36
03-04-'100,430,36
04-04-'100,430,36
05-04-'100,440,36
06-04-'100,350,36
07-04-'100,360,36
08-04-'100,370,36
09-04-'100,360,36
10-04-'100,430,36
11-04-'100,490,36
12-04-'100,420,36
13-04-'100,400,36
14-04-'100,440,36
15-04-'100,310,36
16-04-'100,320,36
17-04-'100,370,36
18-04-'100,530,36
19-04-'100,360,36
20-04-'100,290,37
21-04-'100,250,37
22-04-'100,340,37
23-04-'100,360,37
24-04-'100,230,37
25-04-'100,310,37
26-04-'100,280,37
27-04-'100,180,37
28-04-'100,340,37
29-04-'100,330,37
30-04-'100,310,37
01-05-'100,390,37
02-05-'100,420,37
03-05-'100,390,37
04-05-'101,960,38
05-05-'100,610,38
06-05-'100,530,38
07-05-'100,550,38
08-05-'100,460,38
09-05-'100,570,38
10-05-'100,360,38
11-05-'100,380,38
12-05-'100,620,39
13-05-'100,440,39
14-05-'100,650,39
15-05-'100,440,39
16-05-'100,330,39
17-05-'100,400,39
18-05-'100,360,40
19-05-'100,400,40
20-05-'100,460,42
21-05-'100,200,43
22-05-'100,250,44
23-05-'100,470,44
24-05-'100,430,44
25-05-'100,240,44
26-05-'100,190,45
27-05-'100,150,45
28-05-'100,280,45
29-05-'100,210,45
30-05-'100,280,45
31-05-'100,300,45
01-06-'100,370,45
02-06-'100,340,45
03-06-'100,440,45
04-06-'100,480,45
05-06-'100,480,45
06-06-'100,540,45
07-06-'100,550,45
08-06-'100,510,45
09-06-'100,490,45
10-06-'100,530,46
11-06-'100,480,46
12-06-'100,490,46
13-06-'100,460,46
14-06-'100,440,46
15-06-'100,470,46
16-06-'100,470,46
17-06-'100,480,46
18-06-'100,460,46
19-06-'100,450,46
20-06-'100,460,46
21-06-'100,430,46
22-06-'100,460,46
23-06-'100,500,46
24-06-'100,440,46
25-06-'100,450,46
26-06-'100,450,46
27-06-'100,500,46
28-06-'100,470,46
29-06-'100,480,46
30-06-'100,440,46
01-07-'100,460,46
02-07-'100,430,47
03-07-'100,440,47
04-07-'100,450,47
05-07-'100,480,47
06-07-'100,450,47
07-07-'100,470,47
08-07-'100,460,47
09-07-'100,430,47
10-07-'100,470,47
11-07-'100,480,47
12-07-'100,540,47
13-07-'100,430,47
14-07-'100,510,47
15-07-'100,470,47
16-07-'100,420,47
17-07-'100,500,47
18-07-'100,440,47
19-07-'100,460,47
20-07-'100,480,47
21-07-'100,450,47
22-07-'100,460,47
23-07-'100,440,47
24-07-'100,830,47
25-07-'100,630,47
26-07-'100,470,47
27-07-'100,490,47
28-07-'100,490,47
29-07-'100,520,47
30-07-'100,480,47
31-07-'100,460,47
01-08-'100,480,47
02-08-'100,520,47
03-08-'100,490,47
04-08-'100,470,47
05-08-'100,510,47
06-08-'100,470,47
07-08-'100,470,47
08-08-'100,480,47
09-08-'100,490,47
10-08-'100,520,47
11-08-'100,500,47
12-08-'100,450,47
13-08-'100,470,47
14-08-'100,460,47
15-08-'100,440,47
16-08-'100,480,47
17-08-'100,490,47
18-08-'100,450,47
19-08-'100,460,47
20-08-'100,540,47
21-08-'100,470,47
22-08-'100,460,47
23-08-'100,460,47
24-08-'100,490,47
25-08-'100,460,47
26-08-'100,490,47
27-08-'100,440,47
28-08-'100,480,47
29-08-'100,470,47
30-08-'100,450,47
31-08-'100,490,47
01-09-'100,460,47
02-09-'100,460,47
03-09-'100,510,47
04-09-'100,480,48
05-09-'100,470,48
06-09-'100,500,48
07-09-'100,510,48
08-09-'100,500,48
09-09-'100,450,48
10-09-'100,470,48
11-09-'100,480,48
12-09-'100,480,48
13-09-'100,490,48
14-09-'100,440,48
15-09-'100,480,48
16-09-'100,450,48
17-09-'100,460,48
18-09-'100,450,48
19-09-'100,470,48
20-09-'100,490,48
21-09-'100,500,48
22-09-'100,460,48
23-09-'100,490,48
24-09-'100,440,48
25-09-'100,480,48
26-09-'100,460,48
27-09-'100,470,48
28-09-'100,480,49
29-09-'100,480,49
30-09-'100,540,49
01-10-'100,500,49
02-10-'100,530,49
03-10-'100,470,49
04-10-'100,500,49
05-10-'100,450,49
06-10-'100,430,49
07-10-'100,490,49
08-10-'100,400,50
09-10-'100,370,50
10-10-'100,390,50
11-10-'100,510,50
12-10-'100,600,50
13-10-'100,540,50
14-10-'100,530,50
15-10-'100,510,50
16-10-'100,490,50
17-10-'100,490,51
18-10-'100,530,51
19-10-'100,500,51
20-10-'100,520,51
21-10-'100,540,51
22-10-'100,510,51
23-10-'100,500,51
24-10-'100,510,51
25-10-'100,540,51
26-10-'100,550,51
27-10-'100,570,52
28-10-'100,520,52
29-10-'100,500,52
30-10-'100,510,52
31-10-'100,540,52
01-11-'100,560,52
02-11-'100,560,52
03-11-'100,530,52
04-11-'100,540,52
05-11-'100,500,52
06-11-'100,490,52
07-11-'100,500,52
08-11-'100,520,52
09-11-'100,520,52
10-11-'100,560,52
11-11-'100,520,52
12-11-'100,500,52
13-11-'100,500,52
14-11-'100,520,52
15-11-'100,520,52
16-11-'100,550,52
17-11-'100,540,52
18-11-'100,530,52
19-11-'100,510,52
20-11-'100,510,52
21-11-'100,510,52
22-11-'100,530,52
23-11-'100,520,52
24-11-'100,520,52
25-11-'100,520,52
26-11-'100,510,52
27-11-'100,510,52
28-11-'100,500,52
29-11-'100,530,51
30-11-'100,530,51
01-12-'100,500,51
02-12-'100,550,51
03-12-'100,520,51
04-12-'100,510,51
05-12-'100,520,51
06-12-'100,510,51
07-12-'100,520,51
08-12-'100,490,51
09-12-'100,490,51
10-12-'100,510,51
11-12-'100,470,51
12-12-'100,540,51
13-12-'100,530,51
14-12-'100,520,51
15-12-'100,550,51
16-12-'100,510,51
17-12-'100,520,51
18-12-'100,480,51
19-12-'100,500,51
20-12-'100,500,51
21-12-'100,510,51
22-12-'100,470,51
23-12-'100,490,51
24-12-'100,470,51
25-12-'100,520,50
26-12-'100,510,50
27-12-'100,480,50
28-12-'100,490,50
29-12-'100,520,50
30-12-'100,530,50
31-12-'100,500,50
01-01-'110,500,50
02-01-'110,500,50
03-01-'110,500,50
04-01-'110,510,50
05-01-'110,560,50
06-01-'110,500,50
07-01-'110,500,50
08-01-'110,570,50
09-01-'110,500,50
10-01-'110,510,50
11-01-'110,520,50
12-01-'110,510,49
13-01-'110,500,49
14-01-'110,490,49
15-01-'110,480,49
16-01-'110,490,49
17-01-'110,490,49
18-01-'110,490,49
19-01-'110,500,49
20-01-'110,480,49
21-01-'110,470,49
22-01-'110,460,49
23-01-'110,490,49
24-01-'110,500,49
25-01-'110,490,49
26-01-'110,470,48
27-01-'110,500,48
28-01-'110,480,48
29-01-'110,460,48
30-01-'110,460,48
31-01-'110,460,48
01-02-'110,500,48
02-02-'110,490,47
03-02-'110,480,47
04-02-'110,460,47
05-02-'110,480,47
06-02-'110,480,47
07-02-'110,460,47
08-02-'110,460,46
09-02-'110,430,46
10-02-'110,490,46
11-02-'110,440,46
12-02-'110,440,46
13-02-'110,440,46
14-02-'110,470,46
15-02-'110,480,46
16-02-'110,460,46
17-02-'110,460,46
18-02-'110,460,46
19-02-'110,430,46
20-02-'110,440,46
21-02-'110,450,46
22-02-'110,460,46
23-02-'110,450,46
24-02-'110,460,46
25-02-'110,440,46
26-02-'110,440,46
27-02-'110,440,46
28-02-'110,480,46
01-03-'110,480,46
02-03-'110,470,46
03-03-'110,460,46
04-03-'110,440,46
05-03-'110,460,46
06-03-'110,470,46
07-03-'110,470,46
08-03-'110,470,46
09-03-'110,470,46
10-03-'110,470,46
11-03-'110,500,47
12-03-'110,460,47
13-03-'110,480,47
14-03-'110,490,47
15-03-'110,500,47
16-03-'110,470,47
17-03-'110,470,47
18-03-'110,470,47
19-03-'110,460,47
20-03-'110,460,47
21-03-'110,440,47
22-03-'110,450,47
23-03-'110,470,47
24-03-'110,470,47
25-03-'110,440,47
26-03-'110,480,47
27-03-'110,460,47
28-03-'110,480,47
29-03-'110,480,47
30-03-'110,500,47
31-03-'110,480,47
01-04-'110,450,47
02-04-'110,430,47
03-04-'110,460,47
04-04-'110,490,47
05-04-'110,510,47
06-04-'110,490,47
07-04-'110,470,47
08-04-'110,460,47
09-04-'110,710,47
10-04-'110,500,47
11-04-'110,520,47
12-04-'110,500,47
13-04-'110,530,47
14-04-'110,540,47
15-04-'110,450,47
16-04-'110,450,47
17-04-'110,480,47
18-04-'110,440,47
19-04-'110,460,47
20-04-'110,480,47
21-04-'110,450,47
22-04-'110,450,47
23-04-'110,490,47
24-04-'110,490,47
25-04-'110,480,47
26-04-'110,460,47
27-04-'110,450,47
28-04-'110,440,47
29-04-'110,400,47
30-04-'110,400,47
01-05-'110,440,47
02-05-'110,540,47
03-05-'110,430,47
04-05-'110,470,47
05-05-'110,440,47
06-05-'110,430,47
07-05-'110,420,47
08-05-'110,420,47
09-05-'110,450,47
10-05-'110,460,47
11-05-'110,490,47
12-05-'110,470,47
13-05-'110,490,47
14-05-'110,490,47
15-05-'110,500,47
16-05-'110,480,47
17-05-'110,480,48
18-05-'110,510,48
19-05-'110,480,48
20-05-'110,470,48
21-05-'110,460,48
22-05-'110,470,48
23-05-'110,510,48
24-05-'110,480,48
25-05-'110,470,48
26-05-'110,480,48
27-05-'110,460,48
28-05-'110,450,48
29-05-'110,460,48
30-05-'110,480,48
31-05-'110,490,48
01-06-'110,480,48
02-06-'110,470,48
03-06-'110,490,48
04-06-'110,490,48
05-06-'110,500,48
06-06-'110,460,48
07-06-'110,480,48
08-06-'110,500,48
09-06-'110,530,48
10-06-'110,500,48
11-06-'110,490,48
12-06-'110,500,48
13-06-'110,500,48
14-06-'110,510,48
15-06-'110,480,48
16-06-'110,480,48
17-06-'110,450,48
18-06-'110,490,48
19-06-'110,480,48
20-06-'110,480,48
21-06-'110,490,48
22-06-'110,480,48
23-06-'110,480,48
24-06-'110,450,48
25-06-'110,470,48
26-06-'110,470,48
27-06-'110,460,48
28-06-'110,520,48
29-06-'110,520,48
30-06-'110,460,48
01-07-'110,460,48
02-07-'110,450,48
03-07-'110,480,48
04-07-'110,460,49
05-07-'110,470,49
06-07-'110,510,49
07-07-'110,520,49
08-07-'110,470,49
09-07-'110,500,49
10-07-'110,520,49
11-07-'110,490,49
12-07-'110,500,49
13-07-'110,510,49
14-07-'110,470,49
15-07-'110,450,49
16-07-'110,470,49
17-07-'110,500,49
18-07-'110,470,49
19-07-'110,510,49
20-07-'110,490,49
21-07-'110,500,49
22-07-'110,500,49
23-07-'110,700,49
24-07-'110,560,49
25-07-'110,500,49
26-07-'110,490,49
27-07-'110,510,49
28-07-'110,490,49
29-07-'110,460,48
30-07-'110,470,48
31-07-'110,460,48
01-08-'110,510,48
02-08-'110,480,48
03-08-'110,480,48
04-08-'110,490,48
05-08-'110,480,48
06-08-'110,460,48
07-08-'110,490,48
08-08-'110,490,48
09-08-'110,570,48
10-08-'110,530,48
11-08-'110,520,48
12-08-'110,460,48
13-08-'110,480,48
14-08-'110,480,48
15-08-'110,450,48
16-08-'110,480,48
17-08-'110,470,48
18-08-'110,540,48
19-08-'110,500,48
20-08-'110,500,48
21-08-'110,470,48
22-08-'110,460,48
23-08-'110,510,48
24-08-'110,480,47
25-08-'110,460,47
26-08-'110,470,47
27-08-'110,460,47
28-08-'110,450,47
29-08-'110,450,47
30-08-'110,470,47
31-08-'110,450,47
01-09-'110,460,47
02-09-'110,420,47
03-09-'110,440,47
04-09-'110,480,47
05-09-'110,470,47
06-09-'110,450,47
07-09-'110,470,47
08-09-'110,480,47
09-09-'110,450,47
10-09-'110,460,47
11-09-'110,490,47
12-09-'110,480,47
13-09-'110,480,47
14-09-'110,470,47
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17-10-'170,370,41
18-10-'170,500,41
19-10-'170,440,41
20-10-'170,400,41
21-10-'170,360,42
22-10-'170,360,42
23-10-'170,410,42
24-10-'170,460,42
25-10-'170,440,43
26-10-'170,390,43
27-10-'170,370,44
28-10-'170,390,44
29-10-'170,370,44
30-10-'170,360,44
31-10-'170,470,44
01-11-'170,500,46
02-11-'170,430,47
03-11-'170,410,47
04-11-'170,440,47
05-11-'170,360,47
06-11-'170,390,48
07-11-'170,410,48
08-11-'170,410,48
09-11-'170,480,50
10-11-'170,480,50
11-11-'170,550,50
12-11-'170,860,52
13-11-'170,770,53
14-11-'170,620,53
15-11-'170,640,53
16-11-'170,640,55
17-11-'170,530,55
18-11-'170,720,57
19-11-'170,620,57
20-11-'170,740,57
21-11-'170,610,58
22-11-'170,630,58
23-11-'170,590,58
24-11-'170,600,59
25-11-'170,500,59
26-11-'170,660,59
27-11-'170,590,59
28-11-'170,550,59
29-11-'170,530,59
30-11-'170,570,59
01-12-'170,620,60
02-12-'170,610,60
03-12-'170,580,60
04-12-'170,720,60
05-12-'170,640,60
06-12-'170,520,60
07-12-'170,740,60
08-12-'170,590,60
09-12-'170,510,61
10-12-'170,630,61
11-12-'170,570,61
12-12-'170,570,61
13-12-'170,720,61
14-12-'170,850,61
15-12-'170,790,61
16-12-'170,700,61
17-12-'170,560,61
18-12-'170,540,61
19-12-'170,710,61
20-12-'170,680,61
21-12-'170,740,61
22-12-'170,520,61
23-12-'170,570,61
24-12-'170,580,61
25-12-'170,480,61
26-12-'170,620,61
27-12-'170,540,61
28-12-'170,590,61
29-12-'170,610,61
30-12-'170,840,61
31-12-'170,660,61
01-01-'180,540,61
02-01-'180,760,61
03-01-'180,800,61
04-01-'180,850,61
05-01-'180,670,61
06-01-'180,600,61
07-01-'180,520,61
08-01-'180,570,61
09-01-'180,750,61
10-01-'180,670,61
11-01-'180,630,61
12-01-'180,560,61
13-01-'180,540,61
14-01-'180,550,61
15-01-'180,560,61
16-01-'180,630,61
17-01-'180,680,61
18-01-'180,660,61
19-01-'180,650,61
20-01-'180,670,61
21-01-'180,670,61
22-01-'180,670,61
23-01-'180,590,61
24-01-'180,680,61
25-01-'180,610,61
26-01-'180,620,61
27-01-'180,610,61
28-01-'180,610,61
29-01-'180,560,61
30-01-'180,610,61
31-01-'180,600,61
01-02-'180,630,61
02-02-'180,680,61
03-02-'180,730,61
04-02-'180,660,61
05-02-'180,600,61
06-02-'180,610,61
07-02-'180,590,61
08-02-'180,560,61
09-02-'180,570,62
10-02-'180,560,62
11-02-'180,560,62
12-02-'180,780,62
13-02-'180,690,62
14-02-'180,590,62
15-02-'180,710,62
16-02-'180,560,62
17-02-'180,560,62
18-02-'180,630,62
19-02-'180,520,62
20-02-'180,620,62
21-02-'180,580,62
22-02-'180,650,63
23-02-'180,530,63
24-02-'180,530,64
25-02-'180,480,65
26-02-'180,640,65
27-02-'180,770,65
28-02-'180,760,65
01-03-'180,600,65
02-03-'180,590,65
03-03-'180,560,66
04-03-'180,670,66
05-03-'180,620,66
06-03-'180,680,66
07-03-'180,620,66
08-03-'180,700,66
09-03-'180,660,66
10-03-'180,760,66
11-03-'180,720,66
12-03-'180,740,66
13-03-'180,680,66
14-03-'180,670,66
15-03-'180,660,66
16-03-'180,670,66
17-03-'180,670,66
18-03-'180,700,66
19-03-'180,690,66
20-03-'180,720,66
21-03-'180,670,66
22-03-'180,690,66
23-03-'180,640,66
24-03-'180,650,66
25-03-'180,680,66
26-03-'180,680,66
27-03-'180,740,66
28-03-'180,770,66
29-03-'180,750,66
30-03-'180,680,66
31-03-'180,620,66
01-04-'180,490,66
02-04-'180,580,66
03-04-'180,610,66
04-04-'180,660,66
05-04-'180,570,66
06-04-'180,670,66
07-04-'180,760,66
08-04-'180,700,66
09-04-'180,700,65
10-04-'180,620,65
11-04-'180,630,65
12-04-'180,590,65
13-04-'180,550,64
14-04-'180,630,64
15-04-'180,620,64
16-04-'180,580,64
17-04-'180,630,64
18-04-'180,600,64
19-04-'180,540,64
20-04-'180,530,64
21-04-'180,540,64
22-04-'180,610,64
23-04-'180,640,64
24-04-'180,720,64
25-04-'180,810,64
26-04-'180,780,64
27-04-'180,630,64
28-04-'180,660,64
29-04-'180,690,64
30-04-'180,670,64
01-05-'180,650,64
02-05-'180,620,64
03-05-'180,640,64
04-05-'180,640,64
05-05-'180,640,64
06-05-'180,810,64
07-05-'180,720,64
08-05-'180,640,64
09-05-'180,740,64
10-05-'180,670,64
11-05-'180,600,65
12-05-'180,630,65
13-05-'180,650,65
14-05-'180,630,65
15-05-'180,710,66
16-05-'180,880,66
17-05-'180,750,66
18-05-'180,600,66
19-05-'180,570,67
20-05-'180,610,67
21-05-'180,520,67
22-05-'180,590,67
23-05-'180,600,67
24-05-'180,590,67
25-05-'180,670,67
26-05-'180,640,67
27-05-'180,720,67
28-05-'180,650,67
29-05-'180,900,67
30-05-'180,820,67
31-05-'180,750,67
01-06-'180,650,67
02-06-'180,740,67
03-06-'180,710,67
04-06-'180,690,67
05-06-'180,700,67
06-06-'180,740,67
07-06-'180,830,67
08-06-'180,790,67
09-06-'180,700,68
10-06-'180,590,68
11-06-'180,690,68
12-06-'180,670,68
13-06-'180,620,69
14-06-'180,610,69
15-06-'180,620,69
16-06-'180,900,69
17-06-'180,690,69
18-06-'180,760,69
19-06-'180,800,69
20-06-'180,730,69
21-06-'180,730,69
22-06-'180,630,69
23-06-'180,640,69
24-06-'180,610,69
25-06-'180,770,69
26-06-'180,770,69
27-06-'180,670,69
28-06-'180,640,69
29-06-'180,640,69
30-06-'180,690,69
01-07-'180,590,69
02-07-'180,650,69
03-07-'180,700,69
04-07-'180,870,69
05-07-'180,790,69
06-07-'180,550,69
07-07-'180,670,69
08-07-'180,660,69
09-07-'180,630,70
10-07-'180,710,70
11-07-'180,620,70
12-07-'180,640,70
13-07-'180,700,70
14-07-'180,670,70
15-07-'180,580,70
16-07-'180,680,70
17-07-'180,660,70
18-07-'180,800,70
19-07-'180,790,70
20-07-'180,710,70
21-07-'180,760,70
22-07-'180,830,70
23-07-'180,830,71
24-07-'180,750,71
25-07-'180,680,71
26-07-'180,680,73
27-07-'180,630,74
28-07-'180,710,74
29-07-'180,740,74
30-07-'180,890,74
31-07-'180,890,74
01-08-'180,750,74
02-08-'180,700,74
03-08-'180,810,74
04-08-'180,830,75
05-08-'180,830,75
06-08-'180,830,75
07-08-'180,690,75
08-08-'180,630,75
09-08-'180,820,76
10-08-'180,700,76
11-08-'180,780,78
12-08-'180,690,78
13-08-'180,750,78
14-08-'180,800,78
15-08-'180,740,78
16-08-'180,780,78
17-08-'180,800,78
18-08-'180,730,78
19-08-'180,780,78
20-08-'180,870,78
21-08-'180,790,78
22-08-'180,820,78
23-08-'180,760,78
24-08-'180,730,78
25-08-'180,650,78
26-08-'180,650,78
27-08-'180,730,78
28-08-'180,740,78
29-08-'180,790,78
30-08-'180,870,79
31-08-'180,720,79
01-09-'180,790,79
02-09-'180,830,79
03-09-'180,830,79
04-09-'180,820,79
05-09-'180,870,79
06-09-'180,800,79
07-09-'180,830,79
08-09-'181,240,79
09-09-'180,870,79
10-09-'180,950,79
11-09-'181,130,79
12-09-'180,970,79
13-09-'180,760,79
14-09-'180,680,79
15-09-'180,680,79
16-09-'180,720,79
17-09-'180,810,79
18-09-'180,790,79
19-09-'180,650,78
20-09-'180,940,78
21-09-'180,700,78
22-09-'180,730,78
23-09-'180,790,78
24-09-'180,730,78
25-09-'180,750,78
26-09-'180,710,79
27-09-'180,880,79
28-09-'180,990,79
29-09-'180,740,79
30-09-'180,770,79
01-10-'180,670,79
02-10-'180,760,79
03-10-'180,850,79
04-10-'180,720,79
05-10-'180,650,79
06-10-'180,620,79
07-10-'180,910,79
08-10-'180,880,79
09-10-'180,710,79
10-10-'180,760,79
11-10-'180,820,79
12-10-'180,930,79
13-10-'180,880,79
14-10-'180,550,79
15-10-'180,690,79
16-10-'180,710,79
17-10-'180,790,79
18-10-'180,790,79
19-10-'180,740,79
20-10-'180,750,79
21-10-'180,790,79
22-10-'180,790,79
23-10-'180,810,79
24-10-'180,770,79
25-10-'180,970,79
26-10-'180,900,79
27-10-'180,790,79
28-10-'180,780,80
29-10-'180,780,80
30-10-'180,930,81
31-10-'180,850,82
01-11-'180,700,82
02-11-'180,780,82
03-11-'180,750,82
04-11-'180,820,82
05-11-'180,820,82
06-11-'180,790,85
07-11-'180,970,85
08-11-'180,860,85
09-11-'180,860,85
10-11-'180,790,86
11-11-'180,850,86
12-11-'180,970,86
13-11-'181,000,87
14-11-'180,920,89
15-11-'180,800,90
16-11-'180,750,91
17-11-'181,180,92
18-11-'181,060,92
19-11-'181,030,92
20-11-'180,870,92
21-11-'180,79
22-11-'180,82
23-11-'180,86
24-11-'180,92
25-11-'180,91
26-11-'180,94
27-11-'180,98
28-11-'181,04
29-11-'181,09
30-11-'180,98
01-12-'181,05
02-12-'180,92
03-12-'180,98
04-12-'181,17
05-12-'181,09
06-12-'181,01
07-12-'180,96
08-12-'180,93
09-12-'180,89
10-12-'180,93
11-12-'180,96
12-12-'181,09
13-12-'181,00
14-12-'180,83
15-12-'180,87

Toename van sociale spanningen

De stijging die vanaf december 2017 te zien is, wijst op een sterke toename van Twitterberichten met gevoelens van spanningen en onrust. Deze stijging zet door in 2018. Grote vraag is waardoor dit wordt veroorzaakt. Naast deze toename is er in dezelfde periode een soortgelijke trend te zien in het algemene sentiment van alle Nederlandstalige Twitterberichten. Het gaat hierbij om de verhouding tussen negatieve en positieve berichten op dit sociale medium. Ook hier nemen vanaf eind 2017 de berichten met een negatief sentiment toe ten opzichte van de berichten met een positief sentiment. Er is in Nederland dus in toenemende mate sprake van een algemene negatieve sfeer op Twitter. De stijging van de berichten, die voor de sociale spanningen-indicator worden gebruikt, is echter groter dan de toename in het algemene negatieve sentiment. Dit verschil maakt duidelijk dat de gevoelens van onrust en spanningen op Twitter inderdaad toenemen en niet het gevolg zijn van de absolute toename van negatieve berichten. Een vervolganalyse van de verzameling van geselecteerde berichten verschaft inzicht in de onderwerpen, die hierin aan bod komen, en maatschappelijke onrust veroorzaken.

Oorzaken toename

Wanneer naar de gebruikte woorden in de Twitterberichten wordt gekeken, is te zien dat vanaf december 2017 de woorden ‘politie’, ‘leven’ en ‘problemen’ vaker worden gebruikt in combinatie met woorden, die specifiek sociale spanningen weergeven. De meest voorkomende combinatie van twee woorden in de berichten is 'onze samenleving'. Dit alles wijst op een toename van berichten, waarin zorgen worden geuit over veranderingen in de samenleving. Een handmatige controle bevestigt dit. Drie pieken in 2018 zijn illustratief voor dit fenomeen. De eerste betreft de piek op 8 september 2018, waarin negatief wordt gereageerd op de plannen voor het uitzetten van twee Armeense tieners. De tweede piek is op 17 november. Dit betreft berichten over de rellen tijdens de intocht van Sinterklaas, waarbij ook de zwartepietendiscussie weer oplaait. De laatste piek is die van 4 december. Dit betreft onrust over het mogelijk schenden van de privacywet door de inlichtingendiensten. Berichten met verwijzingen naar de 'gele hesjes beweging' worden weliswaar vanaf de laatste week van november 2018 waargenomen, maar veroorzaken geen pieken in de indicator. Het Sociaal Cultureel Planbureau (SCP) signaleert sinds 2008 een lichte stijging in het aandeel personen, dat een sterk maatschappelijk onbehagen voelt. In 2017 komt het SCP uit op een percentage van ongeveer 10 procent van de mensen. Toekomstig onderzoek zal zich zowel richten op een betere duiding van de lange termijn trend als op de vergelijking met andersoortige bronnen, die gerelateerde informatie bevatten.

Privacy

Voor de samenstelling van de sociale spanningen-indicator zijn openbare Twitterberichten gebruikt. Deze berichten zijn niet gekoppeld aan gebruikers. Het CBS weet dus niet wie deze berichten heeft verstuurd; uitsluitend het totaal aantal berichten wordt gepresenteerd. Er is geen selectie van gebruikers gemaakt, zowel particulieren als bedrijven zijn meegenomen. Ook zijn er geen berichten terug te lezen in de indicator. Voor de analyse van de meest gebruikte woorden zijn uitsluitend de teksten bestudeerd van de berichten in de desbetreffende periode. Daarnaast zijn alle links en usernames verwijderd, zodat niet is op te maken wie er heeft getweet.

Toepassingen

Deze indicator is gebaseerd op dag-gegevens. In de toekomst zal dit doorontwikkeld worden naar een (bijna) real-time indicator, waarmee per minuut kan worden gezien hoe sterk de sociale spanning in Nederland is. Hierdoor kunnen beleidsmakers, met hun reacties op en maatregelen in het kader van recente gebeurtenissen, rekening houden met de stemming in de samenleving. Via berichten op sociale media kan tevens inzicht verworven worden in welke belangrijke thema’s spelen bij de Nederlandse bevolking. Ook kan worden gezien of dit beeld verschilt per regio. Daarnaast kan deze indicator vergeleken worden met andere relevante ontwikkelingen, zoals het algemene veiligheidsgevoel of vertrouwen in de medemens.

Feedback gevraagd

We zouden graag uw mening willen over dit nieuwe product. Dat kan een algemene indruk zijn, maar ook meer specifieke punten die u goed of niet goed vindt. Is het bijvoorbeeld duidelijk wat er getoond wordt? Zo nee, hoe kunnen we dit verbeteren? En ontbreekt er relevante informatie?