Analysis January 2021: Economic situation remains unfavourable
According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economy in January is still deep in the recession stage. In the tracer, 10 out of the 13 indicators are positioned below their long-term trend. As from the reporting month March 2020, the measures taken against the spread of coronavirus have had a major impact on many indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer.
For a large number of indicators, the month-on-month change (the X coordinate) was drastic to the extent that they no longer fall within the coordinates of the BCT visualisation. The coordinates have now been clipped at the edges in order to show the position of the indicators nevertheless. They have been positioned close to the left and right-hand edges. In addition, some indicators are not shown completely as their coordinates are similar and they are positioned on top of each other, e.g. ( GDP and hours worked).
In the course of January, new data have become available for monthly indicators. As a result, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.
Three indicators moved to another quadrant. Export and house prices moved from the green to the orange quadrant. These indicators are performing above their long-term average, but the growth grate is decreasing. Manufacturing production moved from the yellow to the red quadrant. This indicator is still performing below its long-term average, but the growth grate is decreasing now.
Seven indicators of the Business Cycle Tracer are situated in the yellow, three in the red, two are situated in the orange and one in the green quadrant.The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.
- Link Visualisation - Business cycle tracer dashboard
- PDF Methodological aspects - Concept, cycle computation and indicator selection
- Link Dossier - Business Cycle