Business cycle tracer

Statistics Netherlands’ Business cycle tracer is a tool to assist in the analysis of the state and the course of the Dutch economy.

December 2015

Source: Statistics Netherlands

Analysis June 2022: Economic outlook positive

According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic outlook in June was positive. The majority of indicators are positioned in the green quadrant. As from the reporting month March 2020, the measures taken against the spread of coronavirus have had a major impact on many indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer.

For a large number of indicators, the month-on-month change (the X coordinate) was drastic to the extent that they no longer fall within the coordinates of the BCT visualisation. The coordinates have now been clipped at the edges in order to show the position of the indicators nevertheless. They have been positioned close to the left and right-hand edges.

In the course of June, new data have become available for all indicators, except for vacancies. As a result, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.

Five indicators moved to another quadrant. GDP and manufacturing output moved from the orange to the green quadrant. Investments moved from the orange to the red quadrant. Consumer confidence from the yellow to the red quadrant. Bankruptcies moved from the green to the red quadrant.

Eight indicators of the Business Cycle Tracer are situated in the green, three in the red, one in the orange and one in the yellow quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.

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