Analysis August: Economy slightly less deep in recession stage
According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economy in August 2020 is less deep in the recession stage. The heart of the scatter in the Business Cycle Tracer is located deep in the recession stage. As from the reporting month March 2020, the measures taken against the spread of coronavirus have had a major impact on many indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer.
For a large number of indicators, the month-on-month change (the X coordinate) was drastic and the standardised cycle (the Y coordinate) depressed to the extent that they no longer fall within the coordinates of the BCT visualisation. The coordinates have now been clipped at the edges in order to show the position of the indicators nevertheless. They have been positioned close to the left and right-hand edges or close to the bottom. In addition, some indicators are not shown as their coordinates are similar or identical and they are positioned on top of each other, e.g. (consumption and manufacturing output, GDP and hours worked).
In the course of August, new data have become available for all indicators, except for turnover by employment agencies. As a result, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.
Four indicators moved to another quadrant. Consumption and manufacturing output moved from the red to the yellow quadrant. These indicators are performing below the trend and the trend is upward. Bankruptcies moved from the yellow to the green quadrant. This indicator is performing above the long-term trend and increasing. The house prices moved from the green to the orange quadrant. This indicator is performing above the long-term trend and decreasing.
One indicator of the Business Cycle Tracer is situated in the green quadrant, two in the orange, five in the yellow and five in the red quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.