Business cycle tracer

Statistics Netherlands’ Business cycle tracer is a tool to assist in the analysis of the state and the course of the Dutch economy.

December 2015

Source: Statistics Netherlands

Analysis July 2021: Economic outlook slightly improved

According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic outlook in July improved. In the tracer, 7 out of the 13 indicators are positioned above their long-term trend. As from the reporting month March 2020, the measures taken against the spread of coronavirus have had a major impact on many indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer.

For some indicators, the month-on-month change (the X coordinate) was drastic to the extent that they no longer fall within the coordinates of the BCT visualisation. The coordinates have now been clipped at the edges in order to show the position of the indicators nevertheless.

In the course of July, new data have become available for all monthly indicators, except for consumption. As a result, the distribution of the indicators within the quadrants has changed.

Three indicators moved to another quadrant. Investments and exports moved from the green to the orange quadrant. Bankruptcies moved from the orange to the green quadrant.

Two indicators of the Business Cycle Tracer are situated in the red, four in the yellow, two in the orange and five in the green quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.

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