Analysis October: Economic situation less unfavourable
According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economy in October is less unfavourable than in September, but still deep in the recession stage. In the tracer, 10 out of the 13 indicators are positioned below their long-term trend. As from the reporting month March 2020, the measures taken against the spread of coronavirus have had a major impact on many indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer.
For a large number of indicators, the month-on-month change (the X coordinate) was drastic and the standardised cycle (the Y coordinate) depressed to the extent that they no longer fall within the coordinates of the BCT visualisation. The coordinates have now been clipped at the edges in order to show the position of the indicators nevertheless. They have been positioned close to the left and right-hand edges or close to the bottom. In addition, some indicators are not shown as their coordinates are similar or identical and they are positioned on top of each other, e.g. ( GDP and hours worked).
In the course of October, new data have become available for all monthly indicators. As a result, the distribution of the indicators within the quadrants has changed.
Four indicators moved to another quadrant. Investments moved from the yellow to the green quadrant. This indicator is performing above the long-term trend and increasing. Bankruptcies moved back from the orange to the green quadrant. This indicator is performing above the long-term trend and increasing. Exports moved from the yellow to the red quadrant. This indicator is performing below the long-term trend and decreasing. Consumer confidence moved from the red to the yellow quadrant. This indicator is performing below the long-term trend and increasing.
Three indicators of the Business Cycle Tracer are situated in the green quadrant, four in the yellow and six in the red quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.