Analysis October 2021: Economic outlook virtually the same
According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic outlook in October hardly changed. In the tracer, 9 out of the 13 indicators are positioned above their long-term trend. As from the reporting month March 2020, the measures taken against the spread of coronavirus have had a major impact on many indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer.
For some indicators, the month-on-month change (the X coordinate) was drastic to the extent that they no longer fall within the coordinates of the BCT visualisation. The coordinates have now been clipped at the edges in order to show the position of the indicators nevertheless.
In the course of October, new data have become available for almost all monthly indicators. As a result, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.
Six indicators moved to another quadrant. Investments moved from the yellow to the green quadrant. Producer confidence moved back from the orange to the green quadrant. Consumer confidence moved from the red to the yellow quadrant. Manufacturing output moved from the green to the orange quadrant. Exports moved from the orange to the red quadrant and unemployment from the green to the red quadrant.
Two indicators of the Business Cycle Tracer are situated in the red, two in the yellow, two in the orange and seven in the green quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.
- Link Visualisation - Business cycle tracer dashboard
- PDF Methodological aspects - Concept, cycle computation and indicator selection
- Link Dossier - Business Cycle