Analysis May: Economic situation deteriorated sharply
According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation in May 2020 is deteriorated sharply. Twelve of the thirteen indicators of the Tracer of mid-May are performing below their long-term average. The heart of the scatter in the Business Cycle Tracer is located in the recession stage. The far-reaching measures against the spread of coronavirus have a large effect on a lot of indicators of the Tracer.
In the course of May, new data have become available for all indicators, except for turnover by temp jobs agencies and hours worked. As a result, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.
Five indicators moved to another quadrant. Investments and unemployment moved from the green to the orange quadrant. These indicators are performing above their long-term trend now and the trend is downward. GDP and vacancies moved from the orange to the red quadrant. These indicators are performing below their long-term trend now and the trend is downward. Consumer confidence moved back from the yellow to the red quadrant. This indicator is performing below the trend and the trend is downward.
One indicator of the Business Cycle Tracer is situated in the green quadrant, four in the orange and eight in the red quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.