Business cycle tracer

Statistics Netherlands’ Business cycle tracer is a tool to assist in the analysis of the state and the course of the Dutch economy.

December 2015

Source: Statistics Netherlands

Analysis February: Economic situation less favourable again

According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation in February 2019 is again somewhat less favourable than in the previous month. Eleven of the thirteen indicators of the Tracer are performing above their long-term average.

In the course of February, new data have become available for all indicators, except for turnover by employment agencies. As a result, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.

Three indicators moved to another quadrant. House prices and producer confidence moved from the green to the orange quadrant. These indicators are performing above their long-term trend but the trend is downwards now. Export dropped from the orange to the red quadrant. This indicator is performing below its long-term average now, and the growth grate is decreasing.

Four indicators of the Business Cycle Tracer are situated in the green quadrant, seven in the orange and two in the red quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.

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