The year of coronavirus

During the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic in the Netherlands, from week 11 to week 19 inclusive, excess mortality (i.e. the difference between the observed and the expected number of deaths) was estimated at almost 9 thousand. The expected number (per week) is based on weekly mortality in previous years and on demographic developments. In the first 13 weeks of the second wave, from week 39 to week 51 inclusive, altogether 6.1 thousand more deaths were recorded than were expected for this period. There was excess mortality as well during the heatwave in weeks 33 and 34. In the remaining weeks of 2020, death rates fell below their expected levels. On balance, this has resulted in 13 thousand excess deaths up to week 51.

Restrictions clearly affected marriage registrations, migration and nuisance

The number of marriages and registered partnerships in the first ten months of this year dropped by 15.4 percent compared to the same period in 2019. This was mostly related to the sharply declining number of marriages registered during the second quarter. 

Restrictions on border traffic resulted in 50 thousand fewer immigrants over the period January to October inclusive; one-fifth less than in 2019. The number of first-time asylum applicants and following relatives was down by over one-third relative to the same period last year. At the same time, the number of emigrants declined by over 8 thousand or 6 percent. The drop in immigration and asylum applications mainly occurred in the second quarter during the enforcement of various entry bans.
Nuisance as registered in the first six months of 2020 was almost 40 percent higher than in the same period in 2019. Registered crime between January and November was 0.5 percent lower than one year previously, while domestic burglary declined by one-fifth during this period.

Severe decline in consumption

In 2020, the Dutch economy showed strong undulations: from severe contraction during Q2 to extreme growth in Q3; however, the latter trend was too weak to compensate for the contraction in the first two quarters. Gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 4.1 percent year-on-year over the first three quarters. This contraction was primarily due to shrinking household consumption (by 6.4 percent) given the narrower options for consumption under the restrictions imposed by the government on for example hotels, restaurants and bars. Declining investments (-3.5 percent) further contributed to the GDP contraction. Exports fell by 4.6 percent, but due to contracting imports (-4.7 percent) the trade balance remained fairly stable.

Fewer bankruptcies

This year, the number of bankruptcies was down on one year previously. A possible explanation for this are the support packages that were introduced by the government. Public spending over the second and third quarters exceeded public revenue by 36 billion euros. Before the outbreak of the coronavirus crisis, the Netherlands still had a budget surplus.

The average size of the active labour force over the first 11 months of this year was nearly equal to that in the same period last year. Due to growth in the population aged 15 to 74 years, net labour participation was lower on average, declining from 68.8 to 68.4 percent. Meanwhile, unemployment rose from an average 3.4 to 3.8 percent of the labour force.

Less mobility and lower emissions

From January to November inclusive, there were 70 percent fewer air passengers at Dutch airports compared to the previous year. The number of public transport check-ins up to week 50 was halved relative to the same period last year. Road traffic on weekdays up to week 51 inclusive was 82 percent of that in 2019, while on weekends it was 76 percent. As a result of the coronavirus crisis as well as the CO₂-reducing measures, CO₂ emissions (including from international air traffic) fell below the level recorded last year in the first three quarters. Motor fuel sales expressed in energy value declined by 6 percent in the first nine months of this year, relative to the same period last year. This implies that, at least in terms of traffic and transportation, there was not only less emission of CO₂ but also of fine particulate matter and NO_X.