Mortality on the rise again

More recent figures are available on this topic. View the latest figures here.
© Hollandse Hoogte / Robin Utrecht
The estimated number of deaths in week 40 (28 September to 4 October inclusive) stands at 3,000. This is over 200 more than would normally be expected for this week. Mortality was already slightly above average in week 39 (2,865). The elevated mortality coincides with the emerging second wave of the coronavirus pandemic in the Netherlands. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) reports this today, based on provisional weekly mortality figures.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
WeekDeathsEstimated mortalityEstimated mortality (95%-interval)
1310332772908 – 3645
2336433112930 – 3692
3315633442945 – 3742
4304633923008 – 3776
5316234073027 – 3788
6319334012979 – 3823
7319834082916 – 3901
8295933872851 – 3922
9309733522805 – 3898
10310433152785 – 3845
11321732532756 – 3751
12361531742711 – 3637
13445931042703 – 3505
14508430242712 – 3337
15497929572719 – 3195
16430029152711 – 3120
17390728692677 – 3060
18337828412650 – 3032
19298528212633 – 3009
20277427942626 – 2962
21277027702620 – 2920
22272527532608 – 2898
23268227352591 – 2880
24269127372600 – 2875
25269327252594 – 2855
26265927172577 – 2857
27263627232544 – 2902
28261727192515 – 2923
29252627202507 – 2934
30267127072515 – 2900
31265826872492 – 2882
32263526822483 – 2881
33320426692481 – 2857
34284226632510 – 2815
35272526672526 – 2807
36267226762549 – 2804
37272726982564 – 2832
38269427292585 – 2873
39286527522618 – 2886
40299827862628 – 2943
4128072655 – 2960
4228392677 – 3001
4328622661 – 3063
4428892683 – 3095
4529022692 – 3111
4629322710 – 3155
4729722742 – 3202
4830122762 – 3263
4930372742 – 3332
5031002800 – 3399
5131662830 – 3501
5232222871 – 3573
* Provisional figures. Week 40 is an estimate.

Mainly elderly

There were mainly more deaths among people aged 80 and over. Based on the estimate, the increase seems to be slightly stronger among the rest of the population than among people receiving care under the Long-term Care Act (Wlz), such as residents of nursing homes.

Estimated mortality, 2020*
WeekLong-term care (Wlz) users, deathsLong-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortalityLong-term care (Wlz) users, estimated mortality (95%-interval)Other population, deathsOther population, estimated mortalityOther population, estimated mortality (95%-interval)
1121012521052 – 1451189320251780 – 2270
2126512721076 – 1468209920391793 – 2285
3113512821086 – 1478202120621805 – 2319
4112513011113 – 1489192120911842 – 2339
5109813101118 – 1503206420971853 – 2341
6114213091099 – 1519205120921826 – 2358
7115513091069 – 1549204320991796 – 2403
8112912961044 – 1549183020911762 – 2419
9119512761005 – 1546190220761756 – 2396
1011641260989 – 1531194020561752 – 2359
1112001229950 – 1507201720251741 – 2308
1213351191928 – 1454228019831714 – 2252
1316561156912 – 1400280319481715 – 2180
1422121120915 – 1326287219041709 – 2100
1524091091910 – 1273257018661709 – 2022
1620661075912 – 1238223418401691 – 1990
1717161055898 – 1211219118141663 – 1965
1814291048900 – 1195194917931643 – 1944
1911861038897 – 1179179917831631 – 1935
2010311029902 – 1155174317651615 – 1915
2110691015892 – 1138170117551615 – 1895
2210041007887 – 1127172117461602 – 1890
23909995886 – 1104177317401585 – 1895
24958997888 – 1106173317401592 – 1889
25912989879 – 1099178117361585 – 1886
26940985864 – 1107171917321585 – 1879
27931992850 – 1134170517311567 – 1896
28911998849 – 1147170617211552 – 1890
299001003855 – 1152162617171555 – 1879
309571004854 – 1154171417041553 – 1855
31946997851 – 1143171216901540 – 1840
32904993846 – 1140173116901546 – 1834
331311987840 – 1134189316821531 – 1832
341113980849 – 1111172916831553 – 1813
35994974860 – 1087173116931550 – 1835
36942973860 – 1087173017031562 – 1844
37941977865 – 1089178617211579 – 1862
38976989876 – 1102171817401594 – 1886
3910501001892 – 1110181517511606 – 1896
4010781015897 – 1133192017711632 – 1909
411028908 – 114717801638 – 1922
421042910 – 117517971663 – 1930
431054912 – 119518081650 – 1966
441068920 – 121518211662 – 1981
451074925 – 122418271664 – 1991
461086936 – 123518461678 – 2014
471102953 – 125218701684 – 2056
481121964 – 127818921702 – 2081
491135970 – 130019011683 – 2120
501163996 – 132919371721 – 2153
5111931019 – 136819721739 – 2205
5212231035 – 141019991763 – 2236
* Provisional figures. Week 40 is an estimate.

Mortality higher than expected as of week 39

With the exception of elevated mortality in weeks 33 and 34 during the heat wave, the average weekly death count fell slightly below the expected levels as of week 19 had there not been a coronavirus epidemic. Prior to this, mortality was elevated for nine weeks on account of the epidemic. During the first wave of the epidemic, 10 thousand people died for whom COVID-19 was the confirmed or suspected cause of death.
For week 40, the municipal health services (GGD) reported 66 confirmed COVID-19 deaths to the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), and 76 confirmed cases for week 39 (as at 6 October). Because possibly not all people with COVID-19 have themselves tested and registration sometimes takes a little longer, the actual COVID-19-related death count in the Netherlands is likely to turn out higher.

Improved estimation method for expected mortality

The estimation method for the expected mortality has been improved. Expected mortality according to the method that was used until 2 October relied heavily on the observation of mortality in week 3 up to and including 10 of 2020. This was a good method for figures on mortality during the first wave of the coronavirus epidemic, but it is not robust enough to determine excess mortality over a longer period of time. This is why, from now on, CBS is using a long-term average as the basis for expected mortality. This will includes a range indication with the margins within which weekly mortality is usually found, estimated based on the distribution in previous years.

More details next Friday

The figures over week 40 are estimates, based on the 85 percent that were received of the overall number of death records. On Friday 16 October, CBS will publish provisional figures on mortality in week 40. The figures will be more complete by then.