Manufacturers less positive

According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), producer confidence among Dutch manufacturers has deteriorated in November 2019. Confidence stands at 2.8 in November, down from 3.6 in October. In November, manufacturers are mainly less positive about their future output than in the previous month.

The long-term average over the past two decades is 1.0. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (10.9) in February 2018 and an all-time low (-23.5) in February 2009. Optimism has prevailed among Dutch manufacturers since October 2014.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
jaarmaandbalance
December3
2016January3.2
February3.1
March3.9
April4.7
May4.4
June5.4
July5.1
August1.2
September3.4
October4.3
November3.4
December4.7
2017January6
February7
March7.8
April8.3
May6.1
June7.2
July6.6
August5.4
September8.5
October8.2
November9.1
December8.9
2018January10.3
February10.9
March9.5
April8.2
May9.8
June7.7
July6.3
August5.9
September5.7
October5.9
November7.2
December7.5
2019January5.8
February6.3
March6.1
April6.7
May4.7
Juni3.3
Juli 3.9
August3.9
September3.3
October3.6
November2.8

Less positive about output and orders, more negative about stocks

In November, Dutch manufacturers are mainly less positive about their future output and slightly less positive about their order position. They are also more negative about their stocks of finished products.

Two component indicators of producer confidence are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output growth over the next three months outnumber those expecting output decline. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year.

However, manufacturers’ opinions on their stocks are negative. There are more manufacturers who define their current stocks of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Producers in timber and building materials industry most positive

In November, confidence has deteriorated in most sectors. Producers in the timber and building materials industry have the most optimistic outlook. Pessimism prevails in the transport equipment industry, which is also currently the case in the metal industry.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
 November 2019October 2019
Timber and building materials9.214.4
Textiles, clothes, leather6.611.6
Paper and printing6.59.9
Petroleum6.12.4
Food, beverages, tobacco3.44.5
Electrotechnical products and machinery2.25.4
Metal-0.51.2
Transport equipment-7.2-6.2

Manufacturing output over 1 percent up in September

The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 1.2 percent up in September 2019 compared to the same month last year. Output increased for the first time year-on-year since March 2019.

Confidence among German manufacturers more negative

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO index in manufacturing the business climate index has deteriorated in November. German manufacturers are more negative about their ongoing business, but slightly less negative about their future output. In September, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was 5 percent lower than in the same month last year.

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