Dutch manufacturers slightly more positive

According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), producer confidence among Dutch manufacturers has increased slightly in February 2019. Confidence stands at 6.3 in February, up from 5.8 in January. The increase can be attributed to more positive opinions on the stocks of finished products.

The long-term average over the past two decades is 0.9. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (10.9) in February 2018 and an all-time low (-23.5) in February 2009. Optimism has prevailed among Dutch manufacturers since October 2014.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
jaarmaandbalance
2015March1.4
April3.3
May4.1
June4.6
July3.7
August3.5
September3.8
October2.4
November4.0
December3.0
2016January3.2
February3.1
March3.9
April4.7
May4.4
June5.4
July5.1
August1.2
September3.4
October4.3
November3.4
December4.7
2017January6.0
February7.0
March7.8
April8.3
May6.1
June7.2
July6.6
August5.4
September8.5
October8.2
November9.1
December8.9
2018January10.3
February10.9
March9.5
April8.2
May9.8
June7.7
July6.3
August5.9
September5.7
October5.9
November7.2
December7.5
2019January5.8
February6.3

More positive about stocks

In February, Dutch manufacturers are more positive about their stocks of finished products than in the previous month. On the other hand, they are less optimistic about future output. Opinions on order positions have deteriorated slightly.

All three component indicators of producer confidence are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output growth over the next three months outnumber those expecting output decline. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year. Furthermore, manufacturers define their current stocks of finished products as too small rather than too large.

Producers in the wood and building materials industry again most positive

In February, producers in the wood and building materials industry are the most positive for the twelfth consecutive month. However, producer confidence in this industry is less positive than in January.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
 February 2019January 2019
Wood and construction17.121.6
Electrotechnical products and machinery9.010.3
Food, beverages, tobacco8.17.4
Paper and printing6.35.6
Textiles, clothes, leather5.211.0
Metal4.90.6
Petroleum1.32.2
Transport equipment0.94.3

Manufacturing output over 4 percent down in December

The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 4.2 percent down in December relative to the same month one year previously. This is the first decline in over three years.

German manufacturers again less positive

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO index, in manufacturing the business climate index fell markedly once again this month, to the lowest level since May 2016. This was due to both more pessimistic business expectations and less optimistic opinions on the current situation. In December, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was 4 percent lower than in the same month one year previously.

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