Dutch manufacturers less positive

© Hollandse Hoogte
According to Statistics Netherlands (CBS), producer confidence among Dutch manufacturers has declined in January 2019. Confidence stands at 5.8 in January, down from 7.5 in December. Producers are mainly less positive about their future output.

The long-term average over the past two decades is 0.9. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (10.9) in February 2018 and an all-time low (-23.5) in February 2009. Optimism has prevailed among Dutch manufacturers since October 2014.

Producer confidence manufacturing industry (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
jaarmaandbalance
2015February2
March1.4
April3.3
May4.1
June4.6
July3.7
August3.5
September3.8
October2.4
November4
December3
2016January3.2
February3.1
March3.9
April4.7
May4.4
June5.4
July5.1
August1.2
September3.4
October4.3
November3.4
December4.7
2017January6
February7
March7.8
April8.3
May6.1
June7.2
July6.6
August5.4
September8.5
October8.2
November9.1
December8.9
2018January10.3
February10.9
March9.5
April8.2
May9.8
June7.7
July6.3
August5.9
September5.7
October5.9
November7.2
December7.5
2019January5.8

Less positive about future output

In January, Dutch manufacturers are less positive about their future output than last month. Manufacturers’ opinions about stocks of finished products have deteriorated.
However, manufacturers’ opinions about their order books have improved.

Two of three component indicators of producer confidence are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output growth over the next three months outnumber those expecting output decline. More manufacturers consider their order position to be strong rather than weak, given the time of year.

On the other hand a majority of manufacturers define their current stocks of finished products as too large rather than too small.

Producers in the wood and building materials industry again most positive

In January, producers in the wood and building materials industry are the most positive for the eleventh consecutive month. Confidence of producers in the metal products industry deteriorated the most.

Producer confidence by sector (seasonally adjusted) (average of the component questions)
 January 2019December 2018
Wood and construction21.620.2
Textiles, clothes, leather118.4
Electrotechnical products and machinery10.310.8
Food, beverages, tobacco7.45.8
Paper and printing5.62.4
Transport equipment4.33.2
Petroleum2.27.2
Metal0.67.1

Industrial capacity utilisation rate slightly lower

At the beginning of Q1 2019, the industrial capacity utilisation rate stood at 83.9 percent. This is slighty lower than in the previous quarter.

Capacity utilisation rate, first month of the quarter (%)
   Capacity utilisation rate
2015Quarter 281.8
Quarter 382.3
Quarter 482.3
2016Quarter 181.2
Quarter 281.5
Quarter 381.7
Quarter 482.2
2017Quarter 181.3
Quarter 282.8
Quarter 383.4
Quarter 483.3
2018Quarter 183.5
Quarter 283.6
Quarter 384.5
Quarter 484.1
2019Quarter 183.9

Manufacturing output over 2 percent up in November

The average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 2.1 percent up in November on the same month last year. The growth rate was lower than in October. The metal products industry realised the strongest production growth.

German manufacturers again less positive

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. According to the IFO index, in manufacturing the business climate index fell markedly once again this month, to the lowest level since September 2016. This was primarily due to far more pessimistic business expectations. In November, the average daily output generated by the German manufacturing industry was almost 5 percent lower than in the same month one year previously.

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