The revised CBS Business Cycle Tracer

Today, CBS publishes its ‘revised’ Business Cycle Tracer. After more than a decade, the moment has come to evaluate the performances of the indicators. Are these indicators still able to provide a real-time impression of the state of the Dutch economy? In recent years, for example, the capital interest rates of the latest ten-year public loans have not been consistent with the business cycle. Furthermore, the previous tracer had five quarterly indicators, of which at least one can be replaced by a monthly indicator. After careful analysis, thirteen indicators remain.

The new tracer is based on the same reporting period (August) as the ‘previous’ tracer published on 12 August. On Friday 23 September, CBS will publish the new tracer for September with the most recent information, simultaneously with the second estimate of economic growth in Q2 of 2016.

No method change

The new tracer elaborates on the ‘previous’ one and ensures a smooth transition without breaks in the business cycle. The method has been revised and remained unchanged; the set of indicators, however, has been adjusted. Currently, the Business Cycle Tracer includes thirteen instead of fifteen indicators.