Second estimate Statistics Netherlands: new data suggest marginally higher economic growth

26/03/2015 15:15

Statistics Netherlands announced today that the second estimate of economic growth shows that the Dutch economy has grown by 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2014 relative to the third quarter. The second estimate is based on supplementary information. The first estimate, published on 13 February, suggested a growth of 0.5 percent.

An upward adjustment of fixed capital investment largely accounts for the difference of 0.3 percentage points. New supplementary data about the construction sector indicate that investments in buildings and infrastructural projects were higher than initially estimated. On the basis of the second estimate, the picture of the economy has not changed. Exports, investments and household consumption all contribute in a positive manner to economic growth.

Earlier quarters marginally adjusted

With every new estimate, Statistics Netherlands also calculated new seasonally adjusted figures for earlier quarters. On the basis of the second estimate of the fourth quarter of 2014, growth figures referring to the first three quarters of 2014 were adjusted. First-quarter growth figures were adjusted from -0.3 to -0.4 percent, second-quarter figures from 0.6 to 0.7 percent and third-quarter figures from 0.2 to 0.3 percent.

Growth relative to the fourth quarter of 2013

The economy grew by 1.4 percent in the fourth quarter compared to the fourth quarter of 2013, versus 1.0 percent according to the first estimate. The publication of the second estimate for the fourth quarter also implies that the year-on-year growth figures for the first three quarters of 2014 have been recalculated. This did not result in adjustment of the gross domestic product (GDP).

Economic growth over the entire year 2014 was adjusted upwards by 0.1 percentage points and now stands at 0.9 percent.

First estimate

The first estimate, 45 days after the end of a quarter, is based on information available at that moment. After the first estimate, more and new information about the state of the Dutch economy is pouring in. For the second estimate, for example, supplementary data about the sectors business services, construction and hotels and restaurants have become available. On the basis of this information, economic growth in the second estimate may vary from the growth figure presented in the first estimate. In absolute terms, the adjustment in the second estimate compared to the first estimate averaged 0.1 percentage points over the past five years, ranging between
-0.3 and +0.4 percentage points.

Employment grows more rapidly than initially estimated

According to the second estimate, the number of jobs of employees and self-employed was 50 thousand up in the fourth quarter from the third quarter of 2014, versus 42 thousand according to the first estimate. Job figures have been adjusted on the basis of supplementary information.

According to the second estimate, the number of jobs of employees and self-employed increased by 74 thousand in the fourth quarter of 2014 relative to the same quarter in 2013. This outcome is consistent with the first estimate.