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Business Cycle Tracer, 29 August 2014 09:30

Economic situation remains unchanged

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Analysis Augustus:

According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation in August was about the same as in July. Economic recovery has come to a virtual standstill over the last months. In August, improvements and deteriorations again cancelled each other out. Just over half of  indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer show an upward trend, i.e. their growth rate is increasing.

In the course of August, new data have become available for all indicators. As a result of the new information, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.

Six indicators moved to a different quadrant. GDP, exports of goods and labour volume moved from the red to the yellow quadrant. The trend changed from downward to upward, but the indicators are still performing below their long-term average. Producer and consumer confidence moved from the green to the orange quadrant. The confidence indicators moved from an upward to a downward quadrant, but are still performing above their long-term average. Fixed capital forming fell back from the yellow to the red quadrant and this indicator is performing below its long-term average.

At the end of August, the heart of the scatter in the Tracer is located in the recovery stage, but only just. Six of the fifteen indicators are in the yellow quadrant, two in the green, four in the red and three in the orange quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.

The Business Cycle Dashboard shows the cyle of the seperate indicators.
The BCT indicator shows the cycle of the heart of the scatter in the Tracer.

Do you want to know how Statistics Netherlands'  Business Cycle Tracer works? It is on YouTube: How does the Business Cycle Tracer work?.
Do you want to see how the economic downturn developed? It is on YouTube: Looking at the economic downturn.

New look for the business Cycle Tracer

Brief explanation Business Cycle Tracer
Definitions of indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer (BCT)
Methodological aspects, concept, cycle computation and indicator selection

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