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Business Cycle Tracer, 31 October 2014 09:30

Economic situation more or less stable over the past six months

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Analysis October:

According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation in October was just about the same as in September. Economic recovery is still fragile. The economic situation remained fairly stable over the past six months, after gradual improvements from the summer of 2013 until the spring of 2014. In October, improvements and deteriorations also cancelled each other out.

In the course of October, new data have become available for all monthly indicators. As a result, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.

Two indicators moved to another quadrant, i.e. to another cyclical stage. Both consumer and producer confidence moved back from the orange to the green quadrant. The trend of these indicators is upward again instead of downward. They also perform above their long-term average.

At the end of October, the heart of the scatter in the Tracer is located in the recovery stage. Six of the fifteen indicators are in the green quadrant, four in the yellow, four in the red and one in the orange quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.

The Business Cycle Dashboard shows the cyle of the seperate indicators.
The BCT indicator shows the cycle of the heart of the scatter in the Tracer.

Do you want to know how Statistics Netherlands'  Business Cycle Tracer works? It is on YouTube: How does the Business Cycle Tracer work?.
Do you want to see how the economic downturn developed? It is on YouTube: Looking at the economic downturn.

New look for the business Cycle Tracer

Brief explanation Business Cycle Tracer
Definitions of indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer (BCT)
Methodological aspects, concept, cycle computation and indicator selection

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