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Business Cycle Tracer, 11 February 2016 16:30

Sustained improvement economic situation

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Analysis February:

According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation improved further in February 2015 from December. Most of the indicators in the Tracer are performing better than their long-term trend.

In the course of February, new data have become available for all indicators, except for temp jobs. As a result, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.

Four indicators moved to another quadrant. Consumer confidence moved from the green to the orange quadrant. This indicator is performing above its long-term average and the trend is downward now. Orders received shifted from the orange to the green quadrant. Manufacturing output moved from the red to the green quadrant. These indicators are performing above their long-term average and the trend is upward. Exports shifted from the orange to the red quadrant. This indicator is performing below its long-term average and the trend is downwards now.

According to the Business Cycle Tracer, most indicators in the Tracer are performing better than their long-term trend. Ten of the fifteen indicators are in the green quadrant, two in the yellow, two in the orange and one in the red quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.

The Business Cycle Dashboard shows the cyle of the seperate indicators.
The BCT indicator shows the cycle of the heart of the scatter in the Tracer.

Do you want to know how Statistics Netherlands'  Business Cycle Tracer works? It is on YouTube: How does the Business Cycle Tracer work?.
Do you want to see how the economic downturn developed? It is on YouTube: Looking at the economic downturn.

New look for the business Cycle Tracer

Brief explanation Business Cycle Tracer
Definitions of indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer (BCT)
Methodological aspects, concept, cycle computation and indicator selection

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