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Business Cycle Tracer, 30 January 2015 09:30

Economic situation remains more or less unchanged

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Analysis January:

According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation in January 2015  was about the same as in December. The recovery is still fragile. In the period between summer 2013 and spring 2014, the economy improved gradually but since then the recovery process has come to a standstill. In January improvements and deteriorations cancelled each other out. The heart of the indicators is located in the recovery stage.

In the course of January new data have become available for all monthly indicators. As a result, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed. Two indicators moved to another quadrant. Manufacturing output moved from the red to the yellow quadrant. The trend for this indicator is upward instead of downward, but it still performs below its long-term average. The unemployment just crossed from the green into the orange quadrant. The trend for this indicator is downward instead of upward, but it performs above its long-term average.

At the end of January, the heart of the scatter in the Tracer is located in the recovery stage. Seven of the fifteen indicators are in the yellow quadrant, five in the green, two in the orange and one in the red. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.

The Business Cycle Dashboard shows the cyle of the seperate indicators.
The BCT indicator shows the cycle of the heart of the scatter in the Tracer.

Do you want to know how Statistics Netherlands'  Business Cycle Tracer works? It is on YouTube: How does the Business Cycle Tracer work?.
Do you want to see how the economic downturn developed? It is on YouTube: Looking at the economic downturn.

New look for the business Cycle Tracer

Brief explanation Business Cycle Tracer
Definitions of indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer (BCT)
Methodological aspects, concept, cycle computation and indicator selection

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