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Business Cycle Tracer, 30 June 2015 09:30

Economic situation improves considerably

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Analysis June:

According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation improved considerably in June 2015 from May. The Dutch economy improved continually in the period between summer 2013 and spring 2014, but since then recovery has been slower. In May and June it increased again. Almost all indicators in the Tracer are performing better than their long-term trend.

In the course of June, new data have become available for all indicators except job vacancies and temp jobs. As a result of the new information, the distribution of indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.

Three indicators moved to another quadrant. Orders received and exports moved from the orange to the green quadrant. The trend shifted from downward to upward and the indicator is performing above its long-term average. Manufacturing output moved back from the yellow to the red quadrant. The trend for this indicator shifted from upward to downward and the indicator is performing below its long-term trend.

According to the Business Cycle Tracer, the Dutch economy is definitely out of the crisis at the end of June. Twelve of the fifteen indicators are in the green quadrant, two in the yellow and one in the red quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.

The Business Cycle Dashboard shows the cyle of the seperate indicators.
The BCT indicator shows the cycle of the heart of the scatter in the Tracer.

Do you want to know how Statistics Netherlands'  Business Cycle Tracer works? It is on YouTube: How does the Business Cycle Tracer work?.
Do you want to see how the economic downturn developed? It is on YouTube: Looking at the economic downturn.

New look for the business Cycle Tracer

Brief explanation Business Cycle Tracer
Definitions of indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer (BCT)
Methodological aspects, concept, cycle computation and indicator selection

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