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Business Cycle Tracer, 27 February 2015 09:30

Economic situation improves marginally

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Analysis February:

According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation improved marginally in February 2015 relative to January. The recovery is still fragile. In the period between summer 2013 and spring 2014, the economy improved gradually but since then the recovery process has slowed down. The heart of the indicators in the Tracer is located in the recovery stage.

In the course of February, new data have become available for all indicators. As a result, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.

Seven indicators moved to another quadrant. GDP, job vacancies and investments moved from the yellow to the green quadrant. The trend for these indicators is upward and they are now performing above their long-term trend. Producer confidence moved from the green to the orange quadrant. The trend for this indicator is downward instead of upward, but it is still performing above its long-term average. Consumer confidence moved from the orange to the red quadrant. The trend for this indicator is downward and it is currently performing below its long-term average. Manufacturing output moved from the yellow to the red quadrant. The trend for this indicator is downward instead of upward, it is still performing below its long-term average.

At the end of February, the heart of the scatter in the Tracer is located in the recovery stage. Eight of the fifteen indicators are in the green quadrant, three in the yellow, three in the red and one in the orange. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.

The Business Cycle Dashboard shows the cyle of the seperate indicators.
The BCT indicator shows the cycle of the heart of the scatter in the Tracer.

Do you want to know how Statistics Netherlands'  Business Cycle Tracer works? It is on YouTube: How does the Business Cycle Tracer work?.
Do you want to see how the economic downturn developed? It is on YouTube: Looking at the economic downturn.

New look for the business Cycle Tracer

Brief explanation Business Cycle Tracer
Definitions of indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer (BCT)
Methodological aspects, concept, cycle computation and indicator selection

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