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Business Cycle Tracer, 28 November 2014 09:30

Economy hardly improves

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Analysis November:

According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation improved slightly in November compared with October, although the recovery is still fragile. In the period between summer 2013 and spring 2014, the economy improved gradually but since then the recovery process has come to a standstill. In November, improvements just prevail over deteriorations. The heart of the indicators has moved slightly further into the recovery stage.

In the course of November, new data have become available for all indicators. As a result, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed.

Three indicators moved to another quadrant. Consumer confidence moved back from green to the orange quadrant. The trend for this indicator is downward again instead of upward, and it performs above its long-term average. The indicators fixed capital forming and hours worked in temp jobs moved from the red to the yellow quadrant. These indicators are still performing below their long-term average

At the end of November, the heart of the scatter in the Tracer is located in the recovery stage. Six of the fifteen indicators are in the yellow quadrant, five in the green, two in the orange and two in the red. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.

The Business Cycle Dashboard shows the cyle of the seperate indicators.
The BCT indicator shows the cycle of the heart of the scatter in the Tracer.

Do you want to know how Statistics Netherlands'  Business Cycle Tracer works? It is on YouTube: How does the Business Cycle Tracer work?.
Do you want to see how the economic downturn developed? It is on YouTube: Looking at the economic downturn.

New look for the business Cycle Tracer

Brief explanation Business Cycle Tracer
Definitions of indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer (BCT)
Methodological aspects, concept, cycle computation and indicator selection

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