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Business Cycle Tracer, 30 September 2014 09:30

Economic situation more or less stable

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Analysis September:

According to Statistics Netherlands’ Business Cycle Tracer, the economic situation in September was about the same as in August. Economic recovery has come to a virtual standstill over the last months. In September, improvements and deteriorations again cancelled each other out. Just over half of indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer show an upward trend, i.e. their growth rate is increasing.

In the course of September, new data have become available for all indicators except for job vacancies and hours worked in temp jobs. As a result, the distribution of the indicators across and within the quadrants has changed. Two indicators moved to another quadrant, i.e. to another cyclical stage. Unemployment and exports of goods moved from the yellow to the green quadrant. The trend remained upward, but the indicators are now performing above their long-term average.

At the end of September, the heart of the scatter in the Tracer is located in the recovery stage, but only just. Four of the fifteen indicators are in the yellow quadrant, four in the green, four in the red and three in the orange quadrant. The growth rate of indicators in the red quadrant is below their long-term trend and slowing down. The growth rate of indicators in the yellow quadrant is also below their long-term trend, but increasing. The growth rate of the indicators in the green quadrant is above their long-term trend and increasing. The growth rate of indicators located in the orange quadrant is also above their long-term trend, but slowing down.

The Business Cycle Dashboard shows the cyle of the seperate indicators.
The BCT indicator shows the cycle of the heart of the scatter in the Tracer.

Do you want to know how Statistics Netherlands'  Business Cycle Tracer works? It is on YouTube: How does the Business Cycle Tracer work?.
Do you want to see how the economic downturn developed? It is on YouTube: Looking at the economic downturn.

New look for the business Cycle Tracer

Brief explanation Business Cycle Tracer
Definitions of indicators in the Business Cycle Tracer (BCT)
Methodological aspects, concept, cycle computation and indicator selection

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